The News
Venezuelans head to the polls Sunday for a consequential presidential election marred by doubts over whether incumbent President Nicolás Maduro, who is running for a third consecutive term, will allow for a free and fair vote.
So far, the opposition candidate Edmundo González Urrutia is expected to win in a landslide, despite Maduro’s crackdown in the weeks leading up to the vote, including arresting the security chief of opposition leader María Corina Machado and warning that protests against his regime would result in a “bloodbath.”
The government has also made it increasingly difficult for the nearly 8 million Venezuelans living abroad to vote — more than a quarter of the country’s population has fled in recent years as the economy collapsed, and 90% of Venezuelans are living below the poverty line.
SIGNALS
Concerns over a free and fair election persist, but ordinary Venezuelans are defending the vote
There’s a chance Maduro’s government could undermine the election again given his track record, experts warned at a UN Watch conference recently. But hopes for change are high among Venezuelans. Thousands of opposition-recruited volunteers are serving as “witnesses” on election day to make sure rules are followed, The Washington Post reported. Maduro’s government tried to deter them by only allowing volunteers to supervise their own area — meaning they will effectively surveil their own neighbors and risk being ostracized, especially in pro-government regions — but many said they were prepared to face the risks. “There are hundreds of Venezuelans joining an army of brave men, brave women, willing to defend our vote, even with our lives,” one witness told the Post.
An opposition win would have far-reaching domestic and global implications
A win for the opposition could change Venezuela’s fate both domestically and internationally, CNN wrote. It would have a huge impact on migration to the US and neighboring Latin American countries: Recent surveys found that up to 18% of Venezuelans are preparing to leave the country if Maduro is reelected, while 65% of those who left during Maduro’s reign would consider returning if he lost. Geopolitically, the opposition would turn away from Maduro’s allies of Iran, Cuba, and Russia, and rebuild ties with the West, seeking to end the political and economic isolation that Venezuela found itself in under his governance.
The West has a key role in the electoral results
US President Joe Biden “has the opportunity to accomplish something big before he leaves the White House, by truly supporting the restoration of democracy in Venezuela,” Venezuelan anthropologist Elisabeth Burgos said during the recent UN Watch conference. Last year, the US temporarily lifted several of the 350 sanctions imposed on Venezuela to incentivize free elections, and experts agreed that Western pressure was key to ensuring a free and fair election in the country. US government officials told The New York Times that while it was too early to discuss repercussions in case Maduro undermined the election, a concerned Biden administration was closely watching for fraud.