The News
Fears are growing over the prospect of an all-out war between Israel and Hezbollah after Israel blamed the Iran-backed militant group for a deadly rocket attack on the Israeli-controlled Golan Heights Saturday that killed at least 12 children. Hezbollah has denied responsibility.
Some flights to and from Beirut were canceled this week, and Western embassies have urged their citizens to leave Lebanon as soon as possible. While supporting Israel’s right to defend itself, the US said it did not want to “see the conflict escalate.”
SIGNALS
Neither Israel or Hezbollah wants an all-out war
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu vowed Hezbollah would “pay a heavy price” for the alleged attack, and Israeli politicians were “unanimous” in their demand for a forceful response, The Times of Israel reported. But an all-out war with Hezbollah “would not be in our interest at this point,” an Israeli diplomatic source told Reuters. Some observers also cast doubt about the extent of Hezbollah’s involvement and intent: “No party in this entire region has either a political or military interest in targeting a kid’s soccer game,” a Middle East political analyst told Al Jazeera. “Hezbollah’s denial is itself at least an indication that even if it were to turn out to be a Hezbollah rocket, it certainly is not an intentional targeting.”
But without constraints, Israel and Hezbollah could want war in future
So far, an all-out war has “failed to materialize” even when it seemed imminent, CNN wrote, even when Iran engaged in unprecedented strikes in retaliation for Israel’s killing of a senior member of the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps. But Israel and Hezbollah’s apparent restraint should not be taken as evidence that neither party would want to engage in war in the near future, a columnist wrote in Foreign Policy in February, arguing that Middle East politics are “highly dynamic.” However, important constraints are still in place, Haaretz noted: An all-out regional war is unlikely to serve Iran’s interests, and Israel isn’t militarily equipped for one.
It’s unclear what a ceasefire in Gaza could mean for Hezbollah
Netanyahu suspects he will face, and lose, an early election once fighting stops in Gaza, so “may be tempted to expand the fight into Lebanon,” the BBC argued. However, some mediators hope that a truce with Hamas could encourage something similar along Israel’s border with Lebanon, given Hamas is an ally of Hezbollah, The New York Times reported. But there’s “no clear route” to de-escalation if Gaza negotiations fail, the outlet added.