The News
The Sudanese government conditionally accepted an invitation to attend US-sponsored peace talks next month in Geneva, 15 months into a civil war between Sudan’s army and the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces that has left millions displaced and facing famine.
It came as a drone strike targeted an eastern Sudanese army base during a visit by army chief General Abdel Fattah Al-Burhan, Reuters reported. The RSF did not claim responsibility for the incident.
SIGNALS
Ceasefire talks have so far failed to bring a lasting end to the conflict
So far, past ceasefires have failed to stop the fighting, and some Sudanese joke that “the explosions they hear are the ‘sound of the ceasefire,’” Al Jazeera wrote in 2023. Talks in Jeddah at the end of last year were “rendered absurd” as the opposing parties seemed more interested in getting the approval of the US and Saudi Arabia than in bringing an end to hostilities, the head of a Sudanese think tank argued in The Africa Report. Describing the US’ policy on Sudan as a “Humpty Dumpty diplomatic approach,” he added that for future negotiations to go anywhere, the US needs to re-evaluate its strategy and involve other key stakeholders, rather than try and own the process alone.
Talks may be ‘more positive and open’ than previously
Sudan’s government said Tuesday that its participation in the upcoming talks was conditional on the implementation of the Jeddah Declaration, The Associated Press reported, which involves commitments on humanitarian assistance and minimizing harm to civilians. This stance seems “far more positive and open” than the government’s previous positions, the former chief of staff to the US’ special envoy to Sudan wrote on X. Sudan’s army chief previously refused to meet with the head of the RSF in 2023, accusing Kenya, which organized the talks, of bias.
UAE has ‘enormous leverage’ over the conflict’s course
The United Arab Emirates, which plans to attend the upcoming talks, has consistently denied backing the RSF, but the paramilitary group would be unable to wage war to the same extent ”without [Abu Dhabi’s] direct and all-round support,” according to a Sudanese journalist writing in The Guardian. The UAE’s presence would give negotiations a “better chance” of success, Reuters reported. Abu Dhabi has “enormous leverage” over the outcome, Foreign Affairs wrote. Egypt and Saudi Arabia could do the same, albeit in support of the government’s side, the outlet added.