The News
Diplomats are working to prevent a conflict between Israel and Iran after the former carried out a strike that killed a top Hamas official in Tehran. Earlier this week, a building where Ismail Haniyeh, Hamas’ political leader, was staying was targeted during inauguration proceedings for Iran’s newly-elected President Masoud Pezeshkian. Tehran and Hamas say Israel was responsible, but Israel has not officially commented.
Haniyeh, whose organization plotted the Oct. 7 attack against Israel, was a key figure in ceasefire talks. Israel separately said on Thursday that it killed the head of Hamas’ military wing in July.
SIGNALS
European leaders scramble to contain fallout
Western diplomats urged Iranian officials not to retaliate for the assassination. In Washington, meanwhile, officials have said negotiating a ceasefire deal between Israel and Hamas has grown increasingly difficult, given Haniyeh’s importance to the discussions. How much influence the US will have over the conflict will depend on the inroads it can make in Iran, not Israel: “Washington’s ability to shape events is likely to be rather limited,” one former intelligence official told the Financial Times.
Hezbollah will be closely considering response
A separate Israeli strike on Hezbollah commander Fouad Shukr in Beirut will have prompted the militant group to consider how it will respond, analysts say. But Hezbollah so far has been hesitant to enter into an all-out war with Israel, since the fallout could be devastating for Lebanon, where the group is based. It also isn’t a sure thing that Haniyeh’s assassination will push Hezbollah to respond, Michael Stephens, a Middle East expert at the Foreign Policy Research Institute, told The New York Times: “Hezbollah has repeatedly shown that what happens to Hamas is not related to Hezbollah’s strategic imperatives.”
Both Israel and Hezbollah are preparing for war
Neither Israel or Hezbollah want a war — but both sides are preparing for the possibility of one, The Economist noted. Hezbollah has positioned its long-range missiles, and Israeli officials have said that they’re ready for any eventuality. How Hezbollah responds will ultimately depend on Iran: the militant organization operates as a proxy for Tehran in the region, and the group will follow Iran’s lead. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has political leverage to negotiate a ceasefire deal following the strikes, The Economist wrote, but he must wait to see how Iran and Hezbollah respond “to see whether he has a much bigger war on his hands.”