The News
The candidate for Venezuela’s opposition said he would not appear before the country’s high court Wednesday after being summoned by President Nicolás Maduro for an election audit.
Maduro called Edmundo González and eight others to “hand over electoral material” and answer questions; González challenged the hearing’s legality in a statement.
Venezuela has seen mass protests and calls for Maduro to step down since the disputed July 28 election. The country’s National Electoral Committee said he won, but many believe the opposite. Several European and Latin American countries have called for transparency; others, including the US, recognized González as the rightful winner.
On Monday, the attorney general — a Maduro ally — opened a criminal investigation into González and opposition leader María Corina Machado, citing allegations including “incitement to insurrection.”
SIGNALS
A new government led by the opposition may still be possible
A pathway for the opposition to claim victory may still be possible, a columnist argued in Americas Quarterly. If Maduro digs in, it’s possible that popular unrest will only escalate, causing some factions within the establishment to seek a secure way out. A compromising transition deal could be an option, but because “there is no transition without transactions,” one analyst said, González and Machado will need to exercise caution. Their personal dynamic could help there: “Machado is known for her firmness and resolve, while González Urrutia brings a diplomatic touch and a focus on peace and reconciliation.” A resolution to the “stalemate,” the columnist concluded, “will be challenging — but it is not impossible.”
Latin American left is treading carefully
Left-leaning Latin American leaders, including Maduro allies in Colombia, Mexico, and Brazil, have treaded carefully in the aftermath of the Venezuelan election, The Guardian noted. They have called for Maduro to release vote tallies, but haven’t gone so far as accusing him of wrongdoing, nor have they condemned the human rights violations that have ensued since the election. Brazil’s Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, in particular, has positioned himself as a mediator seeking to end the post-election crisis. If it works, it will be a victory for Lula’s “third way” diplomatic strategy, “which seeks to further the economic concerns of developing countries without picking a side in the great powers conflict in the current global cold war 2.0.”
Chavismo can no longer count on popular support
Maduro’s Chavismo party has long counted on its popular electoral strength for an air of legitimacy, but it has gradually lost support, a political science professor told Le Monde. In the late 1980s, a popular uprising led to Chávez’s elevation as the country’s leader — and Maduro’s own narrative regularly refers back to those events to give his government a direct link to that history to fall back on for legitimacy. But now, the same kinds of spontaneous protests are moving against Chavismo, and it may not recover its electoral base again, Caracas Chronicles argued. “The government has genuine trouble mobilizing any sort of support in their favor,” the outlet wrote. “With so little support left, the government has only violence.”