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Semafor Signals

IAEA chief urges ‘maximum restraint’ as fighting nears Russian nuclear plant

Updated Aug 9, 2024, 3:15pm EDT
A building on fire in the Kursk region of Russia. Izvestia via Reuters
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The head of the UN’s nuclear agency on Friday urged Russia and Ukraine to show “maximum restraint” to avoid a disaster, as fighting neared a nuclear power plant in the border region of Kursk.

“In view of the reportedly significant military activity [in the vicinity of the plant], I would like to appeal to all sides to exercise maximum restraint in order to avoid a nuclear accident with the potential for serious radiological consequences,” Rafael Grossi, director-general of the International Atomic Energy Agency said.

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The warning came as Moscow on Friday declared a state of emergency in two regions, four days after Ukraine launched its first major incursion into Russia.

Several Ukrainian brigades crossed the border into the Kursk region on Tuesday in an offensive that appears to have caught the Kremlin off guard, as the forces faced little initial resistance to their advance.

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Ukraine’s incursion ‘made Putin nervous’

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Sources:  
The Moscow Times, Meduza, Bloomberg

Ukraine’s incursion came as a shock to the Kremlin, and the operations have “made Putin nervous,” a Russian official told The Moscow Times. The Russian president has been forced to publicly address the issue, a rare move for a leader who prefers to let his aides be the bearers of bad news. Russia’s Ministry of Defense has come under particular criticism for allowing Ukrainian troops to enter the country and for a chaotic response that may have led to significant casualties. One person close to the Kremlin told Bloomberg that top military officials had dismissed warnings that Ukrainian soldiers were massing near the border in the days before the assault.

The goals of Ukraine’s counteroffensive remain unclear

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Sources:  
Tagesschau, The Economist, ERR, The Washington Post

While the incursion has provided a morale boost for Ukraine, questions remain about what Kyiv hopes to achieve with the cross-border attack. Some analysts warn that the assault could draw Ukrainian troops away from parts of the frontline where they are most needed as Russia continues its advances. The incursion could leave Ukrainian forces dead or wounded at a time when they are already struggling with a shortfall of soldiers. One Estonian official said that the operation would likely force Russia to redeploy troops to the border with Ukraine. Kyiv is hoping to seize a part of Russia to be used as a bargaining chip in future negotiations, a Ukrainian official said, although military experts have said it would be hard for Kyiv to hold on to the territory.

Western allies publicly support the offensive

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Sources:  
Merkur, The Guardian, Aftenposten

While the sight of American and German tanks inside Russia at the beginning of the war would have caused considerable alarm about the risks of escalation, Ukraine’s partners have publicly shown little skepticism about the attack. German politicians in government and in opposition have said they have no problem with German vehicles being used in the offensive, while US officials said the assault was an acceptable use of American weapons. “The right to self defense does not stop at the border to Ukraine,” a Norwegian official told Aftenposten.

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