The Trump administration’s latest trade campaign against China’s dominant solar industry could do little more than raise consumers’ costs, industry insiders warn.
On Friday, Washington imposed a 15% tariff and price floors on all imported polysilicon, a crucial material in solar panels. The measure is intended to get ahead of Chinese manufacturers, who have dodged previous US trade barriers by shifting production between a litany of third countries.
In the near term, the move may not be noticeable to consumers, as solar installers run down healthy inventory levels. But prices will inevitably rise by 2028, according to a BloombergNEF forecast, and some projects will inevitably be canceled, because the US solar manufacturing base, especially for highly specialized components like solar wafers, is far smaller than demand.
Although US manufacturers saw their share prices jump on the news, “this may not drive a ton of domestic manufacturing,” Aaron Hall, president of the solar software provider Anza, told Semafor, because some China-linked exports could remain cost-competitive even with the tariffs. Instead, he said, the tariffs are likely to become a negotiating chip the administration can trade to induce preferred investors to back new manufacturing projects.