The News
Israeli intelligence has suggested that a much-anticipated Iranian attack could come as soon as the next few days.
The anticipated strike had been promised as retribution for the killings of senior commanders in the Hamas and Hezbollah militant groups, which are backed by Iran.
Israel has placed its military on its highest alert level as it braces for a potential assault, the Wall Street Journal reported.
The US National Security Council spokesperson John Kirby said on a press call Monday that the US also believed an attack by Iran or a proxy group could occur this week. The US said it was sending a guided missile submarine and other naval resources to the area, too.
Morgan Chalfant contributed to the reporting.
SIGNALS
Expected strike suggests international pressure isn’t working
For the last two weeks, the international community has urged Iran not to follow through with a strike against Israel, and the UK, France, and Germany released a joint statement Monday warning that any retaliation would jeopardize security in the region. The pressure had seemed to be working, but the new reports suggesting Tehran will launch a direct attack as soon as this week show Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei isn’t backing down. Within Iran, there are some internal divisions over a potential strike: Newly-elected President Masoud Pezeshkian apparently urged Khamenei to hold off, warning that a conflict could “severely disrupt his presidency and lead to significant problems,” Iran International reported.
Iran’s approach to war is changing
Analysts have long believed that Iran would fight with Israel only through its proxy militias, like Hezbollah, rather than engage in a direct confrontation — and thus avoid a full-scale war. But “both assumptions look increasingly fragile,” The Economist noted. Tehran’s rhetoric has shifted in recent months, suggesting “a new appetite for risk-taking.” Meanwhile, Iranian analysts may have misjudged the consequences of a barrage of missiles it fired toward Israel in April. Rather than acting as a deterrent, the air attack may have had the opposite effect, the outlet added: “It may have locked them into escalating the war yet again—at great risk to their proxies, and to themselves.”
Naval deterrence could work, but comes at cost in Pacific
The Pentagon’s decision to publicly announce it is sending aircraft carriers and a submarine to the region could be a ploy to deter Iran from retaliating, while also ensuring it’s a position to respond if deterrence doesn’t work, a senior advisor at conflict think tank International Crisis Group told The Wall Street Journal. But some defense analysts fear moving carriers from Asia to the Middle East leaves the Pacific “dangerously open,” Nikkei Asia reported, and may signal to China that the US “doesn’t have enough naval power to cover its requirements,” a defense and national security consultant told the outlet.