The News
Ukraine has captured about 1,000 square kilometers of Russian territory, according to officials, following its surprise incursion into Kursk Oblast last week.
The attack, which marks the most significant offensive maneuvering from Ukraine since the war began, may be an attempt to force Russia to negotiate the return of captured Ukrainian territory.
Russian President Vladimir Putin has warned the incursion warranted a “worthy response.”
But Moscow has so far been unsuccessful in deterring Ukrainian troops from pushing further into its territory, and officials in Kyiv say that they will continue their effort in Kursk. The advance has forced some 121,000 Russian civilians to evacuate, the acting governor of the Kursk region said.
SIGNALS
Kyiv wants to destabilize the border with Russia
Initial reports about the Ukrainian advance suggested that hundreds of troops crossed the border into Russia, but a Ukrainian official told AFP that “thousands” of people were involved in the incursion. The plan, the official added, is to destabilize Russia and force its army to respond to “light, fast-moving attacks,” The Guardian reported. “The aim is to stretch the positions of the enemy, to inflict maximum losses and to destabilise the situation in Russia as they are unable to protect their own border,” the official added.
Incursion may be an attempt to bring quicker end to war
Kyiv has signaled that it is ready to negotiate an end to the war, and Ukrainians are increasingly fatigued by the conflict. The incursion into Kursk could be an attempt to force Moscow’s hand, an analyst noted in Foreign Policy. Throughout the war, Russia has managed to push the narrative that peace could follow a land swap — and Ukraine may be forcing Russia to agree to trade back annexed territory for Kursk. “This puts [Russian President Vladimir] Putin in a bind: Loss of control over parts of Russia proper is an enormous embarrassment for the Kremlin,” the analyst noted, and “the restoration of Russia’s legitimate state territory will take precedence over continued occupation of recently conquered domains.”