The News
The only way to delay a retaliatory strike by Iran on Israel is to agree to a ceasefire in Gaza, three top Iranian officials told Reuters.
Tehran had promised to avenge the killing of Hamas political leader Ismail Haniyeh on its soil three weeks ago, and Israeli and US officials have said a significant and direct strike could come as soon as this week.
A senior Iranian security official told Reuters that Tehran and its allies, including its proxy militias like Hezbollah in Lebanon, would launch an attack if Gaza ceasefire talks expected to take place this week fail. It’s unclear how long Iran might wait for talks to progress before making a decision.
Separately on Tuesday, international officials including the European Union’s foreign policy chief Josep Borrell condemned Israeli national security minister Itamar Ben-Gvir for engaging in “provocations” during a visit to the Al-Aqsa mosque compound in Jerusalem, one of the holiest sites in Islam and Judaism.
SIGNALS
Israel’s ceasefire requirements have changed
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has repeatedly pointed to Hamas as the cause of the ceasefire deadlock, but documents reviewed by The New York Times suggest that Israel has also hardened its position. Netanyahu’s government has added new conditions to Israel’s demands for a ceasefire, and some negotiators fear a deal is increasingly “elusive,” the Times noted. Among Israel’s additions are stipulations that its forces remain at Gaza’s southern border, and inflexibility over allowing displaced Palestinians to return to their homes in the event of a pause in fighting.
Each strike escalates risk of war
So far, the Middle East has avoided a wider regional war. But the deterrents that have kept the region stable are now buckling under pressure, The Economist noted. Red lines that previously seemed immutable are now being approached: Israel carried out strikes on Beirut, while Iran launched a barrage of missiles and drones at Israel in April. “The Middle East’s old rules of engagement have been erased. Because no one is sure about the new ones, each strike risks escalating to all-out war,” the outlet wrote. The best pathway to avoid a spiraling conflict, the outlet argued, is to agree to a ceasefire in Gaza.