Democrats are hoping a potential blue wave will make a reddish Florida district competitive.
New polling from GQR shared first with Semafor shows retired Army Brigadier Gen. Leela Gray polling at 44% and incumbent Republican Rep. Anna Paulina Luna at 47% — representing a statistical tie, within the 4.4-percentage-point margin of error.
The Pinellas County-area seat has remained out of reach for Democrats in previous cycles as Florida has shifted rightward. Luna, who’s been a polarizing figure among national Republicans, has 94% name ID in the district but mixed approval ratings, according to the survey.
“Voters are fed up with the rampant and shameless corruption in Washington,” Gray said. Democrats believe President Donald Trump’s approval will be a drag on incumbents, with the president polling at 45% favorable and 53% unfavorable in a district he won by 13 points in 2024.