The News
Ukraine claimed full control of a Russian town, the first such success in its surprise offensive into Moscow’s territory.
Kyiv has yet to publicize its war aims with its incursion into Russia, but analysts have suggested that Ukraine is trying to use the territorial gains as a bargaining chip in an attempt to reclaim its own land.
SIGNALS
Sudzha may be a strategic capture for Ukraine
Located in the Kursk region — the area targeted as part of Kyiv’s surprise onslaught — Sudzha marks a strategic capture for Ukraine’s army. The town is located next to a Russian gas terminal that supplies the fuel to Europe. Independent Russian news outlet Meduza reported on Aug. 9 that Sudzha operates as a strategic border checkpoint for Russian gas. Controlling the terminal could have financial implications for Russia, since nearly half of all Russian gas exports come through the area.
Sudzha gas is supplied through Ukraine
Kyiv and Moscow came to a five-year agreement in 2019 that allowed natural gas to transit from Russia through Ukraine to be exported widely in Europe. Kyiv has said it has no intention of renewing that contract, but Russia state-run media has reported that Moscow plans to continue its exports. Only one other pipeline — the Turkstream line that runs through the Black Sea — is currently operational. The Sudzha pipeline is mutually beneficial to Moscow and Kyiv: Russian state gas operator Gazprom earns money from the exports, and Kyiv takes transit fees for their transport.
Kursk incursion may create ‘buffer zone’
Kyiv has yet to fully elaborate on why it launched its surprise incursion into Russia, but said that its goal is to create a “buffer zone” on the border. That would stop some Russian troops from entering Ukraine, but it is still unclear how much area Kyiv plans to capture, or for how long it plans to hold onto the territory. The push is upending some Russian narratives about the war, The Guardian reported: Andrei Fedorov, a former Russian deputy foreign minister, decried the “constant lies coming from our side about the weakness of the Ukrainian army.”