The Scoop
Vice President Kamala Harris leads former President Donald Trump in five of seven battleground states, according to new polling shared first with Semafor that shows a tight presidential election.
Harris leads Trump in Pennsylvania, Michigan, North Carolina, Wisconsin, and Nevada when third parties are factored in, according to new polling from British firm Focaldata which was conducted online between Aug. 6-16. In some cases, her lead is extremely slim, well within the margin of error; in Pennsylvania, for instance, Harris has a single percentage-point advantage (she leads Trump 48% to 47%). Meanwhile, Trump leads Harris 46% to 45% in Arizona and 49% to 45% in Georgia — both states that voted for President Joe Biden in 2020.
Know More
The polling adds to the growing body of evidence of Harris’ momentum since she took over the nomination from Biden one month ago. Biden had been trailing Trump in many states, according to polling in the lead-up to his exit from the race, especially in the Sun Belt states that include Georgia, Nevada, Arizona, and North Carolina.
“The dynamics of the race have been totally upended,” said James Kanagasooriam, chief research officer at Focaldata. At the same time, he said the race “looks like it has the potential to be extraordinarily close.”
That said, the biggest prize — and biggest focus of campaign spending for both campaigns — remains Pennsylvania, where a victory for either side would make it dramatically harder for their opponent to cobble together 270 electoral votes.
“Nobody seems to have locked up Pennsylvania — and if that’s the case come election day we will be heading into an election of great uncertainty,” Kanagasooriam added.
One advantage Harris has that has also appeared in other polls: Popularity. By a 47-45 margin, voters have a favorable opinion of her, while Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz also starts off with a positive favorability rating by a 7-point margin. Trump has a negative favorability rating by a 7-point margin, running mate JD Vance by a 6-point margin.
That said, Kanagasooriam characterized the Harris numbers as “frothy,” both because she’s relatively new to the top of the ticket and because there are temporary factors that could be affecting surveys, like a difference in enthusiasm between Republican and Democratic respondents answering pollsters’ calls.
“The vice president is having a full- blown honeymoon, but as we get nearer to the election further scrutiny and attacks will kick into gear,” he said.
Notable
- The poll also found that inflation and immigration are the top two issues cited by voters across the seven battleground states, two topics where Donald Trump has typically held an advantage in surveys.
- Trump’s campaign is pouring money into Georgia, a state that he needs to win in November but that he has jeopardized due to his attacks on the state’s Republican Gov. Brian Kemp, Axios reports.
- As Vice President Harris and Trump sharpen their economic visions, both are eyeing the child tax credit, Semafor’s Joseph Zeballos-Roig wrote.
Correction: An earlier version of this story included a chart with incorrect figures for Wisconsin.