Harris leads Trump in five of seven battlegrounds: poll

The polling adds to the growing body of evidence of Harris’ momentum since she took over the nomination from Biden one month ago. Biden had been trailing Trump in many states, according to polling in the lead-up to his exit from the race, especially in the Sun Belt states that include Georgia, Nevada, Arizona, and North Carolina.

“The dynamics of the race have been totally upended,” said James Kanagasooriam, chief research officer at Focaldata. At the same time, he said the race “looks like it has the potential to be extraordinarily close.”

That said, the biggest prize — and biggest focus of campaign spending for both campaigns — remains Pennsylvania, where a victory for either side would make it dramatically harder for their opponent to cobble together 270 electoral votes.

“Nobody seems to have locked up Pennsylvania — and if that’s the case come election day we will be heading into an election of great uncertainty,” Kanagasooriam added.

One advantage Harris has that has also appeared in other polls: Popularity. By a 47-45 margin, voters have a favorable opinion of her, while Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz also starts off with a positive favorability rating by a 7-point margin. Trump has a negative favorability rating by a 7-point margin, running mate JD Vance by a 6-point margin.

That said, Kanagasooriam characterized the Harris numbers as “frothy,” both because she’s relatively new to the top of the ticket and because there are temporary factors that could be affecting surveys, like a difference in enthusiasm between Republican and Democratic respondents answering pollsters’ calls.

“The vice president is having a full- blown honeymoon, but as we get nearer to the election further scrutiny and attacks will kick into gear,” he said.