The News
Ukraine and Russia appeared to make progress in their dueling offensives into each other’s territory over the weekend and on Monday.
Moscow claimed Kyiv had damaged a third major Russian bridge Monday, part of the country’s lightning push into the Kursk region that Volodymyr Zelenskyy has said is designed to create a “buffer zone” against further Russian aggression. Moscow, meanwhile, closed in on securing a Ukrainian town, a key step towards securing the entirety of the Donetsk region that it illegally annexed but parts of which are still held by Kyiv’s forces.
SIGNALS
Kyiv undermined Russia’s sense of impenetrability — Moscow is starting to respond
Ukraine’s surprise incursion threw the Kremlin’s propagandists into crisis: “It contradicts everything they’ve been telling their own population about their supposedly mighty army and how well they’re protected,” the founder of Russia Media Monitor told the Kyiv Independent. The attack amounted to a “personal humiliation” to Putin, and “dented the myth” of his invincibility, The Guardian’s foreign correspondent wrote. Moscow has been slowly intensifying its response after that initial moment of being caught off guard, and Ukraine is seeing more troop losses on the ground, The Economist reported.
Creation of ‘buffer zones’ may not shift war in Kyiv’s favor
Zelenskyy’s description of seized Russian territory as a “buffer zone” appropriates Moscow’s own language for Ukrainian territory it has held, former Australian general Mick Ryan noted. Ukraine will at some point likely undertake a partial withdrawal, holding on to the “zone” as a future bargaining chip, Ryan added. But while “stunning and clever,” Kyiv’s incursion may not ultimately change Putin’s calculations, and may make him even more determined to subjugate Ukraine. In wars of attrition, the casualty-exchange ratio is more important than territory captured, and Ukraine’s incursion — which required moving top combat units from its front lines — risks tilting that ratio in Russia’s favor, political scientist John Measheimer argued in Responsible Statecraft.
International pressure may be ramping up
Ukraine’s push into Russia comes at a time when cracks may be starting to show in Kyiv’s support: European defense stocks fell on Monday after a German newspaper reported that the country’s finance minister told colleagues to veto new military aid for Ukraine amid budgetary constraints (a report Ukraine dismissed as “manipulation”). Meanwhile, Zelenskyy criticized the US, UK, and France for not accelerating weapons deliveries over the weekend, Politico reported. On Friday, India’s Prime Minister Narendra Modi will meet with Zelenskyy in Kyiv — a month after he visited Moscow — where he is expected to advocate for an end to the conflict. The meeting could prove a “pivotal moment in the quest for a peaceful settlement” to end the war, Eurasia Review noted.