The News
Ukraine on Wednesday mounted its biggest drone attack on Moscow since Russia’s 2022 invasion.
The Kremlin said all of the aircraft fired upon the capital were destroyed, citing the capital’s “layered defense,” but the scale of the assault —which Ukraine did not itself confirm — points to Kyiv’s increasing willingness to target territory far beyond the two countries’ border.
SIGNALS
Major attacks by either side are unlikely as supplies dip
Ukraine has made “additional advances” three weeks into its Kursk operation, an Institute for the Study of War report noted, but both Kyiv and Moscow lack the materiel to mount major further attacks, according to a US Pentagon intelligence assessment reported by Bloomberg. One Ukrainian artillery brigade commander in eastern Ukraine told the Financial Times that his troops had been forced to ration shells for the first time since military aid was held up by the US Congress. Russia, meanwhile, hasn’t yet transferred its troops en masse from Donetsk to defend Kursk, and continues to creep closer to Pokrosk, a “linchpin” for Ukraine’s defense of the region, the outlet noted.
Russia dismisses negotiation prospects
The Kremlin appears to have ramped up its rhetoric following Ukraine’s incursion, which it claims the US-led NATO alliance helped Kyiv to plan. Sergei Chemezov — a close ally of Putin — warned of global war if the West and the US continued to “provoke” Ukraine into attacking Russian territory, according to Reuters, and the deputy head of Russia’s security council vowed that there would be no negotiations “until the complete defeat of the enemy” in a Telegram post Wednesday. Both countries were set to send delegates to Doha this month for negotiations on energy and power infrastructure strikes, but Russia postponed its meeting with Qatari mediators after Ukraine launched its counteroffensive into Kursk, officials told The Washington Post.