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The Kremlin is reframing Ukrainian troops’ control of the Kursk region of eastern Russia as the “new normal,” Meduza reported. Meanwhile, Moscow postponed local elections due to be held next month in parts of Kursk indefinitely.
In Kyiv, President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said Ukraine wants to hold parts of Russia as a “buffer zone,” making it harder to launch strikes in Ukraine. To that end, Ukraine has reportedly been building fortifications inside Kursk, signaling that its forces may try to hold Russian territory for a lengthy period.
SIGNALS
Russian media mute Kursk incursion
Russian outlets have downplayed the incursion, either ignoring it altogether or describing it as “doomed to failure,” long-time Russia watcher Mark Galleotti wrote in The Spectator. The Kremlin’s media machine has been instructed to call for patience over Russia’s efforts to reclaim the territory, sources close to the Kremlin told Meduza. Still, there are signs the spin has had limited success: One recent poll showed a significant uptick in the number of Russians who described the mood in the country as “anxious” in the week following Ukraine’s surprise counteroffensive.
Moscow prioritizes advances in Ukraine over taking back Kursk
Vladimir Putin appears to be prioritizing an offensive in eastern Ukraine, alongside the stability of his regime, over a full-scale response to the incursion, the Institute for the Study of War argued. This week, Russian forces captured several villages in Eastern Ukraine, putting it within artillery range of a key Ukrainian transit hub in Donetsk, The New York Times reported. While Ukrainian officials have said that one of the motivations for their counteroffensive is to force Russia to redeploy troops away from the front in Ukraine, this seems so far to only have happened on a small scale.
Offensive could worsen Ukraine’s manpower problem
While the offensive into Russia has provided Ukraine with a morale boost, it has also meant deploying troops and equipment that otherwise could have been fighting along Ukraine’s faltering frontline. “Ukraine has big issues with manning, and they have thinned out the lines even further in order to conduct this offensive in Kursk,” prominent defense analyst Mike Kofman said on the War on the Rocks podcast. “Ukraine’s great hope was that a surprise Kursk offensive would relieve the pressure. If anything, Russia’s advance has accelerated,” The Economist said, reporting that battle-hardened units had been sent from the frontline in Ukraine into Russia to be replaced by less-experienced recruits.