The News
There is no evidence that President Nicolás Maduro won July’s widely disputed Venezuelan election, a top-ranking election official told The New York Times, in the first openly critical statement from inside the electoral system.
Juan Carlos Delpino, one of five members of the national electoral committee and one of two supporting the opposition, said he spoke out of a commitment to transparency.
Last week, the country’s Supreme Court, made up of Maduro loyalists, declared the incumbent president as the winner of the presidential election despite growing international calls for the release of vote tallies; the opposition continues to claim victory.
SIGNALS
International criticism of Maduro could spur more sanctions
As international criticism of Maduro’s handling of the election grows, more sanctions are likely to be imposed: The US has drafted a list of 60 government officials and their families who could be subject to punitive measures, Reuters reported, while The Wall Street Journal’s editorial board suggested that Washington should reinstate tougher oil sanctions, which could be the nail in the coffin for Venezuela’s already shaky economy. But “the appetite for a renewed pressure campaign involving sanctions… is slim,” a Latin American analyst argued for the Carnegie Endowment think tank, given that previous such penalties were not successful in toppling Maduro’s regime.
Efforts to kickstart negotiations between Maduro and opposition lose steam
Negotiations between the opposition and Maduro ahead of his Jan. 10 inauguration might be the path forward, but neither side appears ready for that, a Venezuelan analyst at the International Crisis Group told the Financial Times: “It’s not even clear the government is ready to do more than pretend to negotiate.” A joint diplomatic effort by Brazil and Colombia to mediate the standoff has so far been unsuccessful. “The mediation effort is cautious, focusing on avoiding conflict and a new migration wave rather than defending democracy,” one geopolitical analyst told The Associated Press.
Region braces for new wave of Venezuelan migrants
Maduro’s decade in power has been marked by an unprecedented wave of emigration from Venezuela: The UN estimates that since 2014, 7.7 million people have fled the country as it grapples with an economic crisis and growing repression, with most of them relocating to other Latin American countries. The region may not be able to accommodate a potential new exodus, The Associated Press reported, as more Venezuelans who were hoping for a democratic transition and are frustrated by the election outcome consider leaving.