The News
Back in July, Joe Biden was in the race and Republicans were feeling good. So good that Donald Trump’s pollster, Tony Fabrizio, argued at the RNC that their map was expanding into states like Virginia, where public polls showing a tight race were initially dismissed as outliers, but had grown too common for election analysts to ignore.
But then Biden dropped out and Kamala Harris took his place, rallying the base and narrowing Trump’s lead, both in the traditional swing states and nationwide. And yet, somehow there are still polls showing a tight race in Virginia — and Republican leaders in the state are urging the national GOP to take notice. A Roanoke College poll last week, for instance, found Harris up 3 over Trump. A second poll by Quantus Polls and News found the same result.
“The latest public poll has Kamala up a bit, but in the margin of error, so Virginia is competitive, let’s be serious,” Gov. Glenn Youngkin argued in an interview with Fox News’ Brian Kilmeade on Wednesday. “And the fact that we’re having this conversation that Virginia is competitive, when Joe Biden won by 10 points in 2020, is stunning, and I think it’s reflective of the fact that the key issues on voters’ minds are the economy and the border. Those are big issues in Virginians’ minds.”
The Trump campaign, at least publicly, agrees with that stance — although it hasn’t yet translated into major spending in the state as they prioritize the Rust Belt and Sun Belt swing states. They dispatched Eric Trump to the state this month — albeit to the family winery — to make the case they’re paying attention. They also reportedly plan to open 15 offices, according to the Republican Party of Virginia.
“We’re doing far better in some bluish states that are beyond the core seven battlegrounds, and Virginia’s one of them,” Trump spokesman Brian Hughes said. “There’s been a couple polls in just the past week showing Virginia within the margin of error, and that’s consistent with what we’ve said for months, which is that the dynamics of this campaign [are] based on the issues and the candidates show that there’s a playing field for better performance from President Trump than would be expected other Republican candidates.”
Republicans in Virginia see Youngkin, who won in 2021 and has remained popular in polls, as key to this tight race. Zack Roday, who worked for Youngkin’s Spirit of Virginia PAC, told Semafor that his influence can’t be discounted, adding that Youngkin speaks with Trump often and that the two camps “are in constant communication about strategy writ large, and certainly in Virginia.” Roday predicted that post-Labor Day polling would provide more insight into where the party truly stands in the state from a presidential election standpoint.
“I would say it’s right there on the edge, and the reason that it is remains the same — from where Biden was in to where we are today — and that’s the governor’s success in the state, that very easy contrast between the Trump years [being] better than where we are today,” Roday said. “If I’m a Democrat, I have pause. They’re definitely not pleased by this, so we’ll see where it shakes.”
The View From Democrats
Former Virginia Gov. Terry McAuliffe recently discounted the Roanoke College polling as one that’s never “been correct in their life,” and Virginia House of Delegates Speaker Don Scott speculated that Youngkin “wouldn’t even bet me a dollar, let alone any money, that Trump will win Virginia.”
Team Harris already has 25 offices across Virginia, and plans to expand that in the coming months. Their campaign has also focused heavily on the issue of abortion — a topic where Republicans have been vulnerable since the overturning of Roe v. Wade and one that could play into Democrats’ hands come November.
Shelby’s view
I’m skeptical of the red Virginia argument, to say the least — it’s one thing for campaigns and pundits to say a state is in play, and another for them to actually begin significant investments in a state they truly believe is in play. Even some Republicans I’ve spoken to have scoffed at the notion that the state is an option for Trump this campaign cycle.
That said, Youngkin’s influence is worth monitoring: Many Republicans had written off the state before his victory, which suggests there’s still some room for a properly calibrated GOP to make inroads.
Room for Disagreement
Youngkin’s brand of politics is very different from Trump’s, and may also be reaching the limits of its appeal in Virginia. A Politico Magazine profile in June noted that his national star had diminished somewhat after he failed to win a majority in the legislature in a heavily abortion-centered election cycle.