Economists, executives, and investors will closely watch US Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh’s speech today for clues about future central bank policy, and whether he will be more open about his outlook for the economy.
Traders are overwhelmingly betting that the Fed will raise rates at least once over the next year, but Warsh’s view of inflation and whether it is being driven by one-off shocks or more persistent drivers is unclear. That is vexing analysts: 80% of economists surveyed by CNBC said they wanted him to share more of his views, but he has insisted market-watchers “play the ball, not the referee.” Ultimately, he is “unlikely to provide policy guidance,” Goldman Sachs’ chief US economist predicted.