Hedges and Bets: The Future of Prediction Markets

The High-Stakes Future of Prediction Markets

Prediction markets have moved from a novelty to a mainstream consumer product. Average daily volume across US prediction markets reached nearly $2 billion in July, settling everything from Fed decisions to World Cup outcomes to Congressional votes.

But the path ahead is uncertain. Supporters argue prediction markets are a genuine forecasting technology and a legitimate hedging instrument. Critics say they are gambling in a financial-services wrapper: profitable for those who manipulate them, habit-forming for the young users they attract.

Join us as Semafor editors unpack what’s next for this rapidly evolving industry.