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Republicans are counting on President Donald Trump’s cavalry to carry Ken Paxton to victory — but it hasn’t come yet.
Ultimately, the GOP expects MAGA Inc. to help its Texas Senate nominee win with a significant spend this fall, according to multiple Republican sources, although even presidential super PAC donors aren’t clued in on when that will happen.
Paxton defeated Sen. John Cornyn, R-Texas, in a primary earlier this year and Democrat James Talarico is outraising Paxton, making the political headache even more acute.
Lone Star Liberty PAC launched a $15 million bid to aid Paxton on Monday, Politico reported, but Republicans say they need tens of millions more in a state where it costs more than $5 million a week to run a statewide ad campaign.
A spokesman for MAGA Inc. said the group has nothing to share on its spending decisions.
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Talarico has narrowly led a bunch of recent polls, and some forecasters rate the race as a tossup. Cornyn told us months ago that he sees Texas as Trump’s race to fund; top GOP groups supported Cornyn over Paxton because they saw the incumbent as a far better bet to hold the seat in a general election that would suck resources away from swingier states like Michigan and Ohio.
The National Republican Senatorial Committee opened a joint fundraising committee with Paxton, but the group is focused on eight Senate battlegrounds — a spread that doesn’t include Texas, said a person familiar with party spending. The Senate Leadership Fund, GOP leaders’ super PAC, has not made reservations in Texas yet but has alluded to future spending there.
Sen. John Kennedy, R-La., said on Fox News over the weekend that the GOP doesn’t have “the money budgeted for Texas, we need help from the president.” He estimated Paxton could use $100 million or even $200 million from Trump’s PAC to put the race away. Republican officials aren’t expecting that much but are hoping for something close to it.
The longer the group waits, the pricier advertising inventory becomes — and outside groups get less efficient spending rates than candidates. That gives Talarico an edge as Republicans wait on Trump, whose cash stash is so huge that he may not care what rates his super PAC is paying in October.