The AfD’s victory in weekend German state elections portends huge change for the country, the continent, and the West more broadly. The far-right party’s success undermines Chancellor Friedrich Merz: Though he’s unlikely to lose power, the AfD has nearly doubled its support nationally compared to a 2024 nadir, whereas Merz’s party is polling a third lower than two years ago.
The AfD is more skeptical of the EU than its French and Italian peers, a worry for the bloc given Germany is the biggest contributor to its budget. Defense officials, meanwhile, fret that a party seen as favorable to the Kremlin could have greater sway in a country that is fast rearming and is the largest single donor to Ukraine.