The News
The European Union said Monday that allies had shared “credible information” about Iran supplying Russia with ballistic missiles, warning of new sanctions on Tehran if the deliveries were confirmed.
Any delivery “would represent a substantial material escalation in Iran’s support for Russia’s illegal war of aggression against Ukraine,” an EU spokesperson said.
The Kremlin did not appear to deny the report. “Iran is our most important partner... we are developing our cooperation and dialogue in all possible areas, including the most sensitive areas,” a spokesman said. Meanwhile, Iran’s foreign ministry said it “strongly rejected” the allegations.
SIGNALS
Sanctions may be a blunt instrument — and even make the problem worse
Targeted interdiction of the missiles themselves may be more appropriate than blanket sanctions on Tehran, said a former Middle East expert at the US National Security Council. Sanctions against Iran — already the most heavily sanctioned country in the world after Russia — have so far mostly hurt its middle classes, the very group that could be a force for regime change, the authors of a recently released book on the subject argued. Sanctions can further backfire if they’re imposed so indiscriminately that blacklisted countries turn toward each other, and form their own alternative links capable of bypassing Western financial institutions, The Washington Post’s White House economics reporter told Vox’ Today, Explained podcast.
Iran could benefit from closer ties with Russia
Russia and Iran had a “patron-client dynamic” prior to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, but Moscow is now receiving much more from Tehran, a Eurasia expert told the Center for Strategic and International Studies. There’s also indications that Russia is passing Western technology captured on the battlefield from Ukraine to Iran, which allows Iran to learn about how its own systems might fare against Western defenses, another added. Russia is becoming more desperate for missiles as the war continues, which could also strengthen Iran’s hand in requesting high-tech Russian weaponry, an international relations expert wrote for the Stimson Center in March.