The Scene
It’s January 2020 in Italy. The far-right Lega party is ascendant in polls, with its Trump-like leader Matteo Salvini aiming for the role of prime minister. In the state of Emilia-Romagna, a left-wing stronghold, an election is soon to be held. Lega’s candidate has been nominated for the right-wing alliance here. Salvini sees this vote as a major opportunity for a momentum-building win that will cement their newfound relevance as part of the rising global right.
But a new protest movement against the ultra-conservatives stirs the electorate. “Sardines,” as they were called, packed public squares to the brim, true to their moniker. The intent was a display of solidarity against what demonstrators identified as an extremist force positioned to take over the country. And it won. The left prevailed in that regional election, and Salvini was dealt a blow from which he never recovered.
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Brad’s View
In the immediate aftermath of upsets like Donald Trump’s first election and Brexit in 2016, victory for a new brand of right-wing, anti-establishment politics seemed like it could be inevitable. While this strand of politics has proven durable, and disruptive to world governments, elections since 2016 have proven time and again that Trumpist or nationalist politics are not even close to invincible — and in fact, have glaring, fundamental flaws that can limit their reach.
Campaigns are important. Two French elections, in which Marine Le Pen surged closer to Macron in polls, ultimately saw her easily defeated. A groundswell of support, including a broad call to reject Le Pen that included left-wing leaders like Jean-luc Melenchon, rose to give Macron larger-than-expected victories. The strategy was replicated in recent legislative elections, and projections of a National Rally victory were never realized thanks to a coordinated cross-ideological effort
In Spain, Socialist Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez has developed a reputation as an electoral mastermind. But his signature strategy has been running against the newly-emerged nationalist party Vox. Sanchez has effectively tied Vox, known for apologism of the dictator Francisco Franco, to conservatives in the country as a whole, pointing out the party’s likely role in any potential government of the right.
Both cases saw the far-right used as a bludgeon against itself. The fatal flaw of the Trump playbook — which parties like Vox explicitly adopted, and which incentivized bombastic and often vicious campaigning — is its ability to alienate voters outside of its base.
Nevertheless, nationalists around the world have seen breakthroughs. Italy eventually witnessed its most right-wing government since World War II, led by Giorgia Meloni. Across Latin America, far-right leaders are still charging at political systems, and capable of winning almost anywhere. Brazil’s Bolsonaro had a Trump-like experience, with a shocking rise and narrow ouster. Argentina’s Milei has similarly jolted politics, and will defend his tenure in 2027.
The playbook to counter them is there, though, and it’s worked in many places. Victory for the far-right is not inevitable. Americans who defeated Trump in 2020 may yet opt for the same choice in 2024. Kamala Harris, whose own anti-Trump coalition includes everyone from Dick Cheney to Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, seems to understand the strategy: Winning the debate was as easy as winding Trump up, and letting him speak.
Room for Disagreement
One fear in electing the far-right lies in its drive to entrench itself. In Hungary, the government of Viktor Orban has notably skewed the political playing field, manipulating the electoral system in his favor and expanding control over “much of the media and advertising landscape,” as Politico put it. Trump cited Orban as an explicit model during his debate with Kamala Harris.
While other democratic systems may prove more robust than Hungary, the strongmen of our era might only need a handful of openings to cement their power. Figures like Trump and Bolsonaro have shown their willingness to disregard democracy if it means extending their rule. It would be a mistake to think that any country is immune to the new authoritarianism.
Notable
CNN’s Brian Stelter notes that negative partisanship, a political theory which examines how opposition to candidates and parties often drives votes rather than support for them, explains some of the dynamics in the elections above. For the far-right, their opportunities often arise when their opponents are even more unpopular than they are.