The News
Brazil will next week host military drills that will be unusual for the participation of both the US and China.
Tensions between Washington and Beijing have been near historic highs in recent months, but the powers have made efforts to at least improve military communications to avert accidental conflicts, with senior US and Chinese officials holding meetings and attending each others’ conferences.
In Brazil, neither side will play a significant role in the exercises — the US is sending 62 marines, and China 32 sailors — but the newspaper Folha de S.Paulo said they were nevertheless in a “silent dispute,” with each upping their contributions from prior years in a show of one upmanship.
SIGNALS
US and China seek to put military relations on a more secure footing
After a two-year freeze in military relations, the US and China’s top brass are re-engaging in an effort to cool tensions and minimize chances of misunderstandings spiraling out of control. The US commander in the Indo-Pacific had a meeting with his counterpart earlier this week, something his predecessor had tried and failed to do for three years. While more communication is a good thing, Lyle Morris, a senior fellow at the Asia Society Policy Institute, previously told Semafor, such discussions are limited in value because “every single thing that is said by the [Chinese People’s Liberation Army], at any level, has to be vetted, approved, and run up the chain in Beijing,” limiting genuine talks.
Superpowers’ militaries continue to prepare for conflict
The increased communications are unlikely to repair the fundamental rift between the two militaries, which are both preparing for a possible conflict. China has used combat drills to practice sinking US ships, according to Taiwan, while the US military is changing how it fights to specifically prepare for an Asian conflict. The elite US Navy unit that killed Osama bin Laden has been secretly training to defend Taiwan in case of a Chinese invasion, the Financial Times reported. A top Chinese official accused the US of “military collusion” with Taiwan last month, demanding the US stop selling arms to Taipei, and US officials have said they would turn the Taiwan Strait into an “unmanned hellscape” if China decides to attack.
Military experts fear a US-China conflict could go on for years
While Washington has primarily focused on the possibility of a rapid conflict with Beijing in the Taiwan Strait, a US-China war could go on for years, a military researcher at the Hudson Institute argued in Foreign Affairs. This is something neither side appears ready for. The US would likely start to run out of key munitions in the first week of a conflict, simulations conducted by the Center for Strategic and International Studies found, and the American defense industrial base would struggle to quickly fix the shortfall. China has been rapidly improving its military, one expert testified to Congress, but said there is little evidence to suggest Beijing is making the kind of preparations required for a protracted fight.