Republicans plan to push a potential Harris cabinet to the right

Cruz wants to see Trump defeat Harris, like every Republican interviewed for this story. At the same time, the Texan is up for reelection and sees checking a potential Democratic president as a helpful argument for voters in Senate races.

And most senators in both parties acknowledge, at least privately, that the ingredients are there for an unusual split decision.

The GOP is already guaranteed to pick up a Senate seat in West Virginia and is increasingly favored in Montana, with a toss-up in Ohio and several other battleground states now held by Democrats. That makes a single Republican victory, in either Montana or Ohio, enough to flip control.

Republicans would treat her picks “as badly as they could manage,” said Sen. Sheldon Whitehouse, D-R.I. “They would do everything they could to defeat the will of the American people.”

Harris’ biggest potential hurdle Harris with a GOP Senate would come if a vacancy arises on the Supreme Court; outgoing Republican leader Mitch McConnell famously declined to fill a high court vacancy for nearly a year in 2016. And even if Harris wins, there’s likely to be significant turnover in the Cabinet after President Joe Biden leaves office.

Democrats eliminated the Senate filibuster for executive branch nominees and lower-level judicial picks in 2013, and Republicans removed it for Supreme Court picks in 2017. The use of arcane partisan tactics to stall or squash confirmations was growing before that period and has climbed ever since.

South Carolina Sen. Lindsey Graham, currently the top Republican on the Judiciary Committee, said a blockade on judges would not be “good for the institution. But I think we will have a lot of leverage to make sure that nominees are more mainstream.” He also is keeping score: “When they change the rules, there are consequences.”

Still, Republicans say national security and defense nominees could prove an exception to their tentative plans for a possible Harris presidency.

“Nobody goes in with the notion that we’re going to block everyone they’re going to nominate. Government has to function. It wouldn’t be reflex,” said Sen. Marco Rubio, R-Fla. “My hope: I don’t want her to win. But let’s say she did, that there would be some coordination with the Republican Senate.”

The Judiciary panel, which sends federal judge nominees to the full Senate, is where the fallout from a split government would be most pronounced. The parties are in a longstanding arms race over stocking the federal courts.

It’s hard to overstate how slow-moving and bitter a divided Washington would be next year, if Harris wins and Republicans take the Senate. Not since George H.W. Bush has a president entered office without their party controlling the Senate.

In that scenario, the GOP would effectively have veto power over all confirmations for two years. That’s not even taking into account the race to succeed McConnell as top Senate Republican, which will be settled after the election. If Harris wins, the next GOP leader could easily be chosen on the strength of their plans to constrain her administration.

After talking to several senators in both parties over the past week, I would expect a hypothetical President Harris to have huge trouble in particular with judicial nominees who were not painstakingly negotiated with the GOP, including on the Supreme Court.

Any hint of a liberal background among prospective Cabinet members would probably also rev up the Republican buzzsaw.

“You’d find a lot of pushback,” said Sen. Josh Hawley, R-Mo. “On the other hand, if they were like, ‘OK, you know, we’ll work with you,’ then I think you might see some stuff get done.”