The News
Welcome to the Global Hot List, our subjective, dynamic ranking of the races and political developments you should be paying attention to right now, compiled by world elections expert Brad Glasser.
This week: Sri Lanka elects a president on a wave of anti-establishment backlash, Germany’s chancellor breathes a sigh of relief, and a Ugandan government minister provides a heavenly revelation.
The List
1. USA – Final run
Donald Trump said that 2024 will be his final presidential election campaign if he loses. “I think that will be it,” Trump said in an interview with journalist Sharyl Attkisson. The AP notes that Trump would be “older than President Biden is now” at 82 years old if he were to run again in 2028, though as with all things Trump the statement should probably be taken with a grain of salt. Globally, candidates reverse election pledges all the time, and the former president is likely to still be at the front of the pack in primary polling. Our own Benjy Sarlin wrote last year about why a 2028 run would be especially tempting to Trump if he lost.
2. Sri Lanka – AKA AKD
Sri Lanka has a new president from a party with roots in communism. Anura Kumara Dissanayake, also known as AKD, emerged from a presidential campaign defined by backlash to the government, after protests overthrew the president in 2022. AKD leads the People’s Liberation Front, or JVP, which is known for staging armed insurrections in Sri Lanka on multiple occasions. The JVP continues to embrace Marxism as part of its identity, but also has a reputation for Sinhalese Buddhist nationalism, and the party supported the Sri Lankan government in its brutal war against the country’s Tamil minority throughout the 2000s. AKD himself has pledged to maintain the enshrinement of constitutional privileges for Buddhism.
3. Germany – Brandenburg gate
An election in Germany’s Brandenburg state may have saved the chancellor’s job. The local SPD, tipped to lose for years, ended up besting its last election result and secured first place over a surging AfD. Chancellor Olaf Scholz, facing dismal approval ratings, seemed to have a lot riding on the outcome. But the AfD’s near-30% share in the state is still enough to raise alarm, indicating strength for an increasingly extreme far-right as Germany moves towards a general election in 2025.
4. Brazil – Bolsonaro successor
Far-right influencer Pablo Marcal is positioning himself as a “Bolsonaro successor,” according to The Brazilian Report. Marcal, who was hospitalized after being hit with a chair in an event that drew international attention, has surged in the race for mayor of Sao Paulo. A self-described “messianic life coach” who controversially led hikers on a “death march,” Marcal’s bombastic campaign has drawn comparisons to former Brazilian president Jair Bolsonaro, who is barred from running in 2026 due to a court ruling. A win in Sao Paulo, a city of over 11 million people, would instantly put Marcal on the map among right-wing presidential challengers.
5. Malaysia – Green wave
The fundamentalist “Green wave” that shook Malaysia two years ago is still in force, according to analysis. Though “subsiding somewhat,” per Malaysian academic Syaza Shukri, support for the Islamist PAS party has shown durability, as indicated by results from regional and by-elections. PAS, which has been labeled by critics as a “Malaysian Taliban,” shocked the country by winning 2022’s general election and remains a key member in the right-wing Perikatan Nasional alliance.
6. Tunisia – Spring echo
As Tunisia heads towards its presidential election, protests against the president are picking up. “Echoing” the tone of the Arab Spring in Tunisia that ousted a dictatorship, as Business Insider put it, protestors have been persistent in their opposition to what has been decried as a rigged election. President Kais Saied, a hardline conservative who was noted for a fanbase among young people in 2019, is now experiencing a youth backlash. “Most of the young people who voted for Saied in 2019 are extremely disappointed by now,” declared a protestor quoted by Business Insider.
7. Uganda – Holy reversal
God changed his mind about the Ugandan presidential election, according to a government minister. After first endorsing General Muhoozi Kainerugaba, the son of Uganda’s president, God instead shifted his support to the president himself, said youth minister Balaam Barugahara. “Visions keep changing and appearing. God had initially told Gen. Muhoozi that he will be President in 2026.” Muhoozi recently announced his intention not to seek Uganda’s presidency, after years of publicly challenging his father.
8. Czechia – Right-wing swirl
Czechia may see one of the most right-wing governments in Europe after next year’s legislative elections, reflecting shifts at the continental level. A swirl of right-wing parties, including the ANO party of billionaire former prime minister Andrej Babis, would likely amount to a majority in legislative elections set for 2025 according to the latest polling average. Babis, previously aligned with Macron in the EU parliament, joined Viktor Orban’s new group after the bloc’s election in May. Alongside ANO, other parties on the right include the AfD-aligned SPD and an automobile interests movement.
9. Austria – No beer
Austria’s Beer Party is attempting to run a serious campaign — but may face a sobering result. Stripping itself of its satirical stance might have backfired for the party, as an attempt to run as sensible reformists is not paying off in polls, with support for Beer rapidly evaporating. After experiencing highs of double digits, they’re now below the 4% threshold to win seats in parliament, a result that would derail the party’s hope of making a splash in next year’s Vienna election.