Semafor’s The Next 3 Billion 2024: Live updates

Sim Tshabalala, Standard Bank Chief Executive Officer

On crypto: “We see cryptocurrencies in large parts of the African continent, with Nigeria being the lead in terms of both the knowledge and the usage thereof. We’re seeing South Africa introduce interesting regulatory processes to register crypto exchanges to allow cryptocurrency to operate as a financial instrument, as long as it’s regulated. We’re seeing taxation laws being implemented to make sure that people account for the taxable receipts.”

“But importantly, we’re seeing a tightening in other parts of the African continent because of the risks associated with crypto. And we’ve seen the failure of a number of cryptocurrency firms.”

On the need for infrastructure and energy investment to drive digital transformation: Africa will need $3.4 trillion in funding for infrastructure projects in order to support the continent’s digital transformation, he said.

“It’s going to cost us a lot,” he said. “Our corporate and investment bankers calculate that we will need roughly $3.4 trillion in the next while to put in place the energy, the logistics, the roads, the bridges, the fiber, the towers, and so forth.” The figure is based on Standard Bank’s internal research.

On the need for an African Union credit rating agency: “There is no question,” he said, that there is “an African perception risk premium” applied by international credit rating agencies to African countries’ central banks. However, he added that an African Union credit rating agency may not address the problem if it just replicated what the current credit rating agencies do. “I would only say what matters actually is the transparency, the sophistication of the models, the professional discipline, is what would matter to users of those ratings by such an agency.”

Mark Suzman, Gates Foundation Chief Executive Officer

On connectivity: Suzman said he believes in a future where everyone is connected, but warned that with any technology, like artificial intelligence, “the benefits of it will go disproportionately” to the wealthiest countries and the wealthiest people within low and middle-income countries “unless there is a degree of intentionality” from governments and philanthropies to drive down the cost of connectivity.

On countries leading the charge on connectivity: “One of the real leaders... has been India,” Suzman said, adding that the country pioneered a digital identity platform that gave access to financial, education, and healthcare services. Several African countries are also rolling out such platforms, he noted, including Ethiopia’s “ambitious new digital identity scheme.”

On whether Elon Musk could be the next Warren Buffett: Suzman said Buffet has donated a total of $43 billion to the foundation, calling it “the most generous contribution of one philanthropist to another in human history.” He added: “I would be lying if I said I think any other person is going to be giving us over $40 billion to spend directly.” When asked if he thinks Tesla and X owner Elon Musk could be the next Buffett, Suzman said, “We’re open. We really don’t mind whoever comes in with philanthropy.”

Michael Schlein, Accion President and CEO

On making use of data analytics to expand access: “Data and data analytics at scale is allowing us to see people who have been invisible until now,” he said. Schlein argued that having more data available from phones and other technology enables a more nuanced understanding of how microfinancing and other financial instruments impact people who are not connected to global digital infrastructure, and understand how to reach them where they are.

Claudia Belli, BNP Paribas Global Head of Social Business and Microfinance

On what is driving the digital revolution: “The largest revolution was in mobile banking,” she said. Because it is relatively easy and inexpensive to buy a smartphone, more people have access to mobile financial services, including banking, the ability to get and pay off loans easily, and to get a credit score. Smartphones have also opened up educational and communication resources, and that “creates empowerment,” she said.

Nisha Biswal, US International Development Finance Corporation Deputy CEO

On sustainable digital infrastructure: Digital infrastructure requires huge amounts of energy and water, particularly at data centers, she said. When the US DFC works with data centers in Africa, it’s important to consider their efficiency, whether they can be powered with renewables, and if it is possible to capture the water they need for cooling without taking away from the resources the local population depends on. “You’re ensuring that you’re creating a resilient and sustainable infrastructure to support the digital economy needs,” she said, “without creating adverse impacts on the climate.”

Sadek Wahba, I Squared Capital CEO

On the return on investment from sustainable infrastructure: If investors are looking to fund projects in high-growth economies, Wahba said, then it is important to consider if the infrastructure is impactful and sustainable — and to recognize that returns will take longer to materialize. In that sense, he said, it is beneficial for private investment to couple with government funding, such as that provided by the US DFC.

Enoh Ebong, US Trade and Development Agency director

On Africa’s infrastructure gap: Ebong said it is “the largest gap that we see in the world.” “Clearly the potential is there,” she said, “but there is a gap, particularly in financing for the innovative projects, transactions, and activities that can close the infrastructure gap.”

Samaila Zubairu, African Finance Corporation CEO

On unlocking Africa’s potential: Having the youngest population in the world means Africa has “a growing market and a growing middle class,” he said. The AFC is currently engaged as the lead developer and as financial advisers for the Lobito Atlantic Railway project, which is aimed at establishing an overland route for exports from the Democratic Republic of Congo and Zambia to the Lobito port in Angola.

On the energy transition: The AFC is involved in a mining project to produce green copper, a mineral critical to much clean energy technology, including batteries. Aside from expanding their mine’s capacity from about 900,000 tons to more than 1 million tons, they have also expanded the capacity to process the copper ores to concentrate and are working on a facility to produce copper anodes locally instead of shipping the copper out of the continent for processing. “We have to own our development. We need to take responsibility for the future generations of Africa and make sure that we are focused on good outcomes for them,” he said.

Cina Lawson, Togo Minister of Digital Economy and Transformation

On the need for broadband: Lawson said the challenge Africa is facing is having fixed broadband. “It’s true that when we look at the history of the internet on the continent, it was all about mobile. But we are a young continent. Unemployment is a challenge. No corporation will ever go to any place because there is 4G or good satellite connectivity. We will go to some place because they know that there is reliable broadband, so that’s a challenge.”

On mobile internet accessibility in Togo: Lawson said that 40% of phones in Togo are 2G-only phones, whereas all the networks are 4G networks: “If people have 2G-only phones, then you know they don’t have access to the internet,” she said.

Akinwumi A. Adesina, African Development Bank President

On Africa’s risk premium: “The global financial architecture is not serving Africa’s interest… It costs you three to four times to access capital in Africa than it is in any part of the world. This is based on perceived risk. Well I’m sorry, your perception is not my reality.” He referred to an analysis by Moody’s on losses on infrastructure assets over a 14 year-period, which found Africa posted 1.9% compared to 6.6% in North America, 12% in Latin America, and 4.5% in Asia. “Africa is the least risky and at the same time the place where the cost of capital is quite high. So it is not a fair rating system that is being used for Africa… We need to level that playing field.”

On sourcing more African funding and less external debt: There is a need to align asset allocation from institutional investors towards Africa’s critical infrastructure needs “and the way to do that is to mobilize your own capital”

On the highlights of his time at the bank: The AfDB’s capital base has increased from $93 billion in 2015 to $318 billion today, he said. “Our work throughout the last 7-8 years has impacted more than 400 million people. That’s what really matters: water, sanitation, energy.”

John Giusti, GSMA Chief Regulatory Officer

On the usage gap: “The usage gap is 34% globally, 58% in Africa,” he said, adding that that is a massive growth opportunity for digital infrastructure companies and network providers. “This is where government industry can partner together, to make sure that their digital ambitions are matching with the policy landscape.”

Mcebisi Jonas, MTN Independent Non-Executive Chairman

On how geopolitics influences digital infrastructure: Describing geopolitics as the “elephant in the room,” the global landscape particularly effects the choice of technology available to businesses and governments in Africa. “Given the current geopolitical and the weaponization of trade, which is the reality that we have at the moment, the continent probably has to navigate the path and in a very sensitive way,” he said.

James Manyika, Google Senior Vice President Technology and Society

On the AI divide: The world is running the risk of creating an “AI divide” between countries that could lead to a worse outcome for humanity as artificial intelligence becomes increasingly powerful, he said. The world should work to ensure “the existing digital divide doesn’t also turn into an AI divide in a way that leaves out the Global South.”

He warned that progress on AI may stall or even turn toward harmful outcomes if all nations weren’t engaged in the transformation — which, in turn, requires significant infrastructure investment.

“I don’t think it should be acceptable that the Global South is not part of this, both to benefit from [AI] but also to shape how this technology is governed and how it impacts humanity,” he said. He said public-private partnerships to fund basic digital infrastructure, like underwater fiber-optic cables — which Google has invested in — would help build global capacity to participate in the AI era.

Joel Embiid, Philadelphia 76ers

On international sports growing in Africa: “We [Africa] have the talent,” Embiid said, cautioning that to capitalize on that, international sports bodies need to invest in healthcare and other critical infrastructure on the continent. Individual athletes can also invest back into the community, he said. “I want to have as much impact as possible, especially on the continent of Africa.”

Dr. Rajiv Shah, Rockefeller Foundation President

On electrifying Africa: “It is a race against time,” he said, estimating that the rate of electrification in Sub-Saharan Africa needs to double, at least, particularly if the continent is to build the data centers and other infrastructure for AI. A solution could lie in renewables, Shah said, but there are barriers. “Over the last 20 years, for all the renewable energy that’s built out all across the planet, less than 2% of it has been built in Africa,” he said, arguing that the way the global supply chain is structured means the price of green tech, like solar panels and batteries, is much higher on the continent than in the rest of the world.

Dr. Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala, World Trade Organization Director General

On global challenges to African trade: Protectionism fragments both trade and trade regulation, Okonjo-Iweala said, adding that the continent should work together to develop a shared regulatory framework and trade infrastructure.

The value of digitally-delivered trade is about $4.25 trillion but Africa has only 0.9% of it, she estimated. Growing the continent’s share requires concerted efforts to establish the right regulatory systems in multiple countries, and more investment in electricity and telecommunications infrastructure, she added.

On impact of the US Federal Reserve rate cut: The US central bank’s decision to cut interest rates by 0.5% at its latest meeting could have a positive downstream effect for Africa by lowering the cost of debt, she said. Lower debt service costs as a result of the Fed’s actions could free up capital for governments to finance social infrastructure.

She cautioned that the effect will differ between countries. “Even if the Fed cuts and your domestic issues are very severe, it doesn’t automatically mean you’ll have lower interest rates,” she said. African governments must “look inward” to solve their monetary and fiscal problems — particularly inflation, she said.

Brad Smith, Microsoft President and Vice Chair

On the challenge of financing AI: The world needs to a new financial architecture and governance framework to fully maximize the power of artificial intelligence, Smith said. “We will not bring AI to the world unless we harness the power of the private sector and capital markets,” as well as government funding, he said. In return, AI will serve “every part of the economy,” Smith predicted. Microsoft recently announced it would partner with BlackRock and Abu Dhabi’s MGX investment vehicle to back a $30 billion AI fund. Smith is also a member of the board at G42, a UAE-based AI company.

On the geopolitics of AI: For AI to go global, it may ultimately require the US “to get comfortable with these chips being exported,” to countries like the UAE or Kenya, Smith said, referring to highly advanced AI-capable chips like those made by Nvidia, which are subject to export limits amid concern that China could use the chips to the detriment of the US. “The other side of the equation will be that [the exported chips] will be deployed in data centers with the right kind of safety and security and privacy standards,” he said, citing an emerging consensus on the need for safe and secure AI.

Ervin Tu, Prosus/Naspers Group Chief

On India’s Next Amazon: “We are a big investor in a company called Meesho, which is, by orders per day, the largest e-commerce marketplace in India, more than Amazon, more than Flipkart.” Meesho managed that growth by selling lower priced goods from local business, many of whom had never sold anything online. “This company is a play at accessing what we call the next 300 million of Indians who are coming online for the first time, transacting, living the digital lives that many of us already live.”

Briana Wilsey, American Express Vice President
On American Express’ interest in Africa: The company’s typical demographic of high-end consumers “absolutely exists all over Africa,” and American Express wants to be there “to serve them.” In addition, many American Express users travel to Africa, and they expect to be able to use their cards, she added.

Olugbenga Agboola, Flutterwave CEO

On Flutterwave’s partnership with American Express: Businesses that use Flutterwave’s API can more easily receive payments from customers using American Express cards in Africa, Agboola said. Flutterwave’s presence in dozens of African countries, in turn, makes it easier for American Express to increase its footprint across the African continent.

Diana Layfield, British International Investment Chair

On the future of AI in Africa: “I think what we’re seeing is AI’s potential to really help optimize power grids, to help optimize electrification across the continent,” she said, explaining that building a data center can also mean building out renewable power, like a solar farm around the data center, which then creates more local economic growth. A challenge to these kinds of projects, Layfield pointed out, is that AI language models are generally trained on English content, which could present a barrier to operating in African countries where English is not widely spoken.

On expanding access to the internet: “Over the last few years we’ve seen 160 million new internet users across the continent,” she said, caveating that while the progress is remarkable, “it is still not enough,” with less than a quarter of people on the continent, she estimated, regularly using mobile internet services.

Hassanein Hiridjee, Axian Group CEO

On creating more digital access in Africa: Rather than needing to expand mobile cell service coverage, he said, the biggest to expanding access to digital services is to do with usage. Buying a smartphone is more expensive for a person on the continent, relative to elsewhere. Ways to expand device access could include lowering import duties, and helping people to pay for them.

Evi Fuelle, Credo AI Director of Global Policy

On the need for AI literacy: “When you think about building capacity, investing in AI, it’s important to invest in AI literacy,” she said, because it isn’t enough to build data centers without also creating mechanisms for accountability and assessing performance.

Dr. Bosun Tijani, Nigeria Minister of Communications, Innovation, and Digital Economy

On Nigeria’s economic reforms: Nigeria has long struggled to optimize the use of its resources, raising productivity, and diversifying its economy. “We have a president that is taking difficult decisions, whether people like these decisions or not. The reforms are meant to help us reshape the direction of our economy but we can’t reshape if we don’t build. We know that young people will build if we empower them,” Tijani said.

On the potential of AI: “Many people say I am wasting my time on AI, but every learned African should be pushing AI because these technologies will determine many things about how we live,” he said, adding that AI’s potential for good is mirrored by its potential for harm if it isn’t inclusive. Nigeria is set to announce an “AI collective” to be funded by Pierre Omidyar, the founder of eBay, on Oct. 9, with the aim of bringing together multiple stakeholders, including startups and civil society groups, to craft Nigeria’s AI strategy, “but also ensure that the development of AI in the country takes into consideration safety and ethics.”

Lazarus Chakwera, President of Malawi

On how Malawi is expanding connectivity: The president touted the country’s partnership with Elon Musk’s Starlink satellite internet service as indicative of how the government is investing and measurably expanding people’s access to reliable and fast internet. However, the country’s connectivity rate, he said, still remains below 50% of the population.

On mining for green tech minerals: Malawi has one of the largest stores of rare earth minerals, including bauxite, uranium, and graphite. These minerals are crucial in tech manufacturing, including in making green technologies like batteries and solar panels: “The green economy of tomorrow will depend largely on the development of some of these materials,” Chakwera said, adding that Malawi has collaborated with other African countries and international legal experts to try and get the best deal for the country.