The News
Azerbaijan has apparently offered to cover the travel and accommodation costs for four delegates from small island developing states attending the United Nations’ upcoming climate summit, according to Reuters.
Taking place in Baku this year, COP29 will feature protecting island nations vulnerable to climate change on the agenda.
“We will do our best to ensure the participation of those countries in need,” a senior COP29 official familiar with the proposal told Reuters. Meanwhile, the island nation of Tuvalu’s prime minister is set to ask the United Nations to pass a resolution to enable the nation to maintain its maritime boundaries even as its atolls face increasing risk of becoming submerged by rising sea levels.
Azerbaijan’s gesture may mitigate criticism over it hosting the meeting: At last year’s COP28, which took place in Dubai, host country UAE came under significant scrutiny amid alleged dealmaking on the sidelines and a fight over phrasing on the transition from fossil fuels.
SIGNALS
Azerbaijan comes under familiar criticism from climate groups
Azerbaijan’s list of priorities for COP29 include increasing battery storage capacity and cutting methane emissions, but not phasing out fossil fuels, the Financial Times noted, with one climate science group describing the aspirations as “critically insufficient.” The censure was perhaps inevitable, given that Azerbaijan is an oil-rich country. That said, 2023’s COP28 was hosted by another “country of contradictions,” the UAE, and nonetheless yielded positive outcomes, including an agreement to transition from fossil fuels (a first) and private investment pledges for the Global South, a climate policy expert noted in The Conversation. While the UAE “was not able to persuade others to match its generosity,” they wrote, ”there will be more pressure in 2024,″ with climate finance expected to be a major theme for COP29.
Global oil demand forecasts are diverging
Global demand for oil is forecast to reach 120.1 million barrels a day in 2050, despite global efforts to diversify energy mixes away from fossil fuels, according to OPEC’s annual report. Projections vary, however, with OPEC something of an outlier: The Paris-based International Energy Agency — which is “pushing hard for a net-zero based future,” CNBC noted — said in June it expects demand to level off by 2030. OPEC has an institutional incentive to “undershoot” its forecasts and revise higher to avoid complaints from oil-exporting member states, which makes its recent high-growth forecasts all the more significant as OPEC countries become increasingly defensive around the benefits of oil, The Baker Institute think tank argued.
Regions once thought less vulnerable to climate change face its effects
Small island developing states are at the “frontline” of the climate crisis, as they have both extensive marine and coastal zones and limited energy security. But it’s not just these nations that are feeling the impacts of the climate crisis in the immediate term: Catastrophic flooding in Europe this summer was made twice as likely by climate change, because warmer air holds more moisture, according to an analysis by World Weather Attribution. “Future-proofing our cities demands continuous adaptation,” a climate risk consultant told The New York Times.