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Last year, Argentina elected an ultra-libertarian in a vote that shocked the world. Javier Milei, once seen as a sideshow in politics, ascended from his status as a bombastic TV pundit to Congress and then the presidency in less than three years.
Next year, midterm elections will determine whether Argentina’s support for his small-government radicalism was an electoral fad, or something more durable. Even as reports emerge that inflation is rapidly subsiding, a wave of protests have rocked the country since Milei’s inauguration against severe austerity measures that have led to an increase in poverty. The dynamic sets the stage for a polarized vote likely to be received as a referendum on the president’s hardline agenda.
Polling for 2025’s legislatives shows Milei’s Liberty Advances party with a significant boost over its last performance. Moreover, Argentina only elects half of its lower house legislators each cycle. After holding only 38 of 257 seats as of 2023’s election, Milei is looking to ratify his movement’s presence at all levels of power.
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A burst of social media-fueled momentum, and a message aimed squarely at capitalizing on Argentina’s rampant inflation, pushed the Milei campaign far beyond any expectations. Since his election, Milei has advanced a far-reaching program to roll back Argentina’s welfare state and re-tailor society to his professed “minarchism” — or stripping the government to only its essential functions.
Immediately upon taking office, Milei issued a titanic “mega-reform” package he deemed as an “emergency decree,” which included hundreds of measures aimed at deregulation and transformation of government. While many mainstream conservatives and business liberals have been willing to go along with Milei’s plans out of desperation to fix the economy, the president also faced opposition from critics who accused him of ignoring the usual democratic process.
After the decree was suspended by courts, Milei assembled his reforms into an “omnibus” bill. But negotiations with other parties saw the resulting legislation watered down from its original form. Argentina’s Senate, controlled by Peronists who traditionally favor a more interventionist government, rejected the bill outright.
But Milei’s presidential election breakthrough also points at a restructuring of the political landscape, as polls suggest his movement is eating into support for Argentina’s center-right. Next year’s midterm elections will present an opportunity for his libertarian movement to further consolidate its grip on government, potentially paving a path for the president to press forward the most radical aspects of his orthodox worldview.
Brad’s View
It’s worth taking a step back and recognizing what has happened here. A hardcore, fringe movement rose from obscurity, powered by Internet hype, and is now working its roots into Argentina’s general political culture. Milei will likely succeed in sending a new raft of allies to Congress next year, including possibly economic “shock therapy” proponent Jose Luis Espert and Manuel Adorni, his spokesperson.
As always, it’s a story with global implications. Total societal transformation, in any direction, is only ever a few elections away. In an age where the most extreme movements are capable of emerging virtually overnight as leading players, Argentina should be received as an example, not an outlier.
Notable
- Milei has a plan to secure a majority in Congress: American-style elections. The president has proposed instituting a system of single electoral districts determined by first-past-the-post. That would benefit plurality winners, making it far easier for Milei to cement control over the legislature without being compelled to work with other parties.