The News
Welcome to the Global Hot List, our subjective, dynamic ranking of the races and political developments you should be paying attention to right now, compiled by world elections expert Brad Glasser.
This week: A moderate revolution sweeps Japan’s governing party, the far-right wins for the first time in Austria’s modern history, and a hardline Islamist party surges in Jordan’s election.
The List
1. Japan – LDP revolution
Japan’s political landscape witnessed a shocking rewrite as a perennial candidate for prime minister finally won — and immediately made sweeping moves. Shigeru Ishiba, a former minister of defense who has run for LDP leader on five separate occasions, defeated his ultranationalist rival Sanae Takaichi. Ishiba is a supporter of same-sex marriage, and after his victory took the initiative to isolate the LDP’s far-right faction, including a group that was close to former prime minister Shinzo Abe. Ishiba, riding a wave of momentum, called a general election, which many now anticipate the LDP to win in a walk.
2. USA – Debate wash
Vice presidential nominees went head to head on Tuesday in the last scheduled debate of the election. Snap polls showed a stalemate between the two candidates, with Vance having a slight edge among viewers queried according to CBS and CNN. However, both candidates were seen to improve their favorables, at least among those who watched: Tim Walz went from +14 to +37 favorability, while Vance saw a lift from -22 to just -3.
3. Austria – Look who’s back
A nationalist party with origins in the post-WW2 remnants of the Nazis placed first in Austria’s legislative elections. The Freedom Party of Austria took around 29% of the vote, just ahead of the country’s conservatives. However, an extremist FPO under leader Herbert Kickl, who has used the Nazi-linked term “Volkskanzler” to refer to himself, may end up being sidelined by a grand coalition. Kickl is noted for anti-vaccine rhetoric, along with a hardline stance on migration he’s branded as “Fortress Austria.”
4. Kenya – Ruto versus Rigathi
Kenyan politics is witnessing a showdown between President William Ruto and his second-in-command. Deputy president Rigathi Gichagua, facing an impeachment motion for “gross misconduct” with support from within his party, has pointed a finger at the president, “warning him of dire consequences” if he backs the effort. Gichagua links the motion to the president joining forces with opposition leader Raila Odinga, accusing the two politicians of a pact to “push him out.” The unfolding drama has been described as building up to “one of the most defining moments in Kenya’s political history.”
5. Jordan – Islamist surge
Islamists won Jordan’s legislative elections, part of a larger shift in public opinion stemming from Israel’s invasion of Gaza. The Islamic Action Front, which is associated with the Muslim Brotherhood, received the best result in its history, winning 31 of 138 seats in Jordan’s parliament. Victory for the IAF was attributed to outrage against the war in Gaza, and the party both supports Hamas and seeks to annul Jordan’s peace treaty with Israel.
6. Chile – The 1%
Only 1% of voters trust Chilean political parties, according to a poll, as the country heads towards municipal elections. The atmosphere of distrust is marked, as a left struggling with its unpopularity in government faces off with conservatives scarred by perception of corruption after high-profile scandals. According to polls, independents could benefit from the voter backlash. An insurgent far-right is also making a play for power in these elections, building its base after Pinochet defender Jose Antonio Kast made the presidential run-off in 2021.
7. Turkey – New face
Turkey’s opposition may have yet another new rising star in Sinem Dedetas, head of the Istanbul municipality of Uskudar. Dedetas, a naval engineer, was hailed as a “masterful administrator” of Istanbul’s water transport system after being appointed to the role in 2019 by mayor Ekrem Imamoglu. After running in local elections earlier this year, she wrested her city district from the AKP’s firm control. Imamoglu himself is seen as a potential candidate for president, but legal issues make his candidacy uncertain, and Dedetas rounds out a packed bench for the Republican People’s Party.
8. India – Ten year wait
In India, the territory of Jammu and Kashmir held its first election in a decade. The region has a tumultuous recent history, and elections had been delayed since Modi’s government moved for a contentious status change in the former state, which is now a union territory. The shift meant that Jammu and Kashmir was “put under federal control with no local representation” until now, when voters will decide on a new assembly. The BJP is looking to make headway here, but local parties are campaigning on backlash to the government revoking autonomy.
9. Greece – Radical degrowth
Greece’s Syriza movement has undergone staggering decline following its 2019 loss of power. The former alliance of left-wing parties suffered a catastrophic defeat in elections held last year, and lately has dipped into single digits in polling. Syriza’s most recent leader, Stefanos Kasselakis, attempted to shift the party towards a more moderate stance, which saw the emergence of splinter efforts and his eventual ouster from the role.