The News
Russia is prioritizing boosting childbirth in the face of a declining population, a teetering economy, and extensive battlefield losses.
Data released in September showed that mortality had risen, driven by the conflict in Ukraine, while births had reached their lowest levels in 25 years.
President Vladimir Putin recently said that Russia should “make it fashionable to have many children, as it used to be… in the past,” and lawmakers introduced a bill last week that would make it illegal to advocate for a “child-free” lifestyle, with fines of over $4,000 for individuals who don’t comply.
SIGNALS
Birth rate boost plan goes hand in hand with recruiting for military
Russia’s birth rate push is intertwined with the Kremlin’s goal of recruiting more men for the military, The New York Times reported. In Russia, “the body is turning into a public good,” an Estonia-based expert said. “A woman’s body is a producer of children, and a man’s body is the ability to pull the trigger.” As he works toward this goal, Putin recently announced a military expansion that would bring the number of active-duty recruits up to 1.5 million. But there are significant constraints to generating more manpower, an expert noted for the Carnegie Endowment think tank — key among them an “intractable” demographic change that has created labor shortages across the country.
Political and economic instability are among the causes of low birth rates
A 2023 study showed that about 30% of Russians who said they were planning on having children before 2022 had postponed or given up on the plan entirely because of the difficult economic and social situation in the country. But banning and punishing certain behaviors may not be the most effective solution to boost demographic growth, a demographer told DW. “This looks more like hysteria than politics to me,” he said. “You can forbid everything, it won’t matter. Only financial support for families with a second and third child will increase the birth rate.” The Kremlin doesn’t seem to be planning on offering financial incentives, however: 2025 budget projections show it’s looking to cut welfare spending.
Putin’s economic and demographic goals may be incompatible
In February, Putin announced a swath of political measures he’d implement in his fifth consecutive term in office, including plans to increase birth rates, reduce poverty, and restore a faltering economy. These goals may not be compatible with each other, an expert told the US-based outlet Russia.Post: “All world economic history tells us that economic development is correlated with a decline in fertility.” The crisis is compounded by a demographic gender gap that was already significant before the war in Ukraine — 54% of the population was made up of women, and 46% of men — and has likely gotten worse since then, as more than 120,000 men have been killed in the war, independent Russian-language outlet Meduza added.