The News
Iran’s supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khameini Friday warned that Tehran’s recent missile strikes were the “minimum punishment” for Israel’s “crimes.” In his first public sermon in nearly five years, Khameini said that Iran would attack Israel again “if need be.”
His speech came as Israel continued its strikes on Lebanon Friday, reportedly targeting a potential successor to the former Hezbollah head Hassan Nasrallah who was killed in an Israeli strike. The Israeli onslaught on the country has killed more than 1,300 people and displaced a million.
Iran is bracing for an Israel’s retaliation over the barrage of more than 180 missiles that Tehran fired into Israel on Tuesday. In his sermon Khameini insisted that Iran and its proxies would not back down in their confrontation.
SIGNALS
Concerns over US ability to rein in Israel’s response
The US is expecting a ”measured” response from Israel to Iran’s missile attack, according to the Financial Times, but the White House has been “blindsided repeatedly” by most Israeli military actions in recent weeks, The Wall Street Journal wrote. President Joe Biden said the US was discussing the possibility of Israeli strikes on Iranian oil facilities, but Western allies have been pushing the country to stop short of attacking oil or nuclear installations, even as some are concerned about Washington’s ability to rein in Israel. Successfully destroying Iran’s well-protected nuclear sites would require “extensive US support, if not direct involvement,” two experts wrote in the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists, something the Biden administration appears unlikely to provide for the time being.
Tehran left with strategic dilemmas as Israel weakens its proxies
With both Hezbollah and Hamas severely weakened, Tehran faces the collapse of its “axis of resistance,” which has allowed it to threaten Israel indirectly. This weakness has led to a growing chorus of voices in Israel who believe that this is the moment to severely weaken Iran. “Now is the time to strike the head of the octopus,” one former Israeli prime minister said. Many Iranians fear an unpredictable war with Israel: A widely shared message on Iranian social media said, “There is no good in war, do not lay ruin to Iran,” The New York Times reported. Iran is also not prepared for a direct conflict, according to The Atlantic, with one source close to the Iranian military saying, “We don’t have a fucking air force.” “I don’t know what they are thinking.”
Lebanon faces dire humanitarian consequences
Israel’s campaign to cripple Iran’s proxy Hezbollah is already the deadliest conflict in Lebanon in more than three decades. Many families are sleeping on beaches in Beirut with nowhere else to go, and the World Food Program has warned that Lebanon is at a “breaking point.” The country is expected to receive more than $450 million in humanitarian funding. But Lebanese officials have said that the destruction has come at a cost of more than $1.7 billion. However, the Lebanese Armed Forces have an opportunity to take back control in the vacuum left by Hezbollah’s collapse, but Lebanon would need decisive action by the US to regain sovereignty, The Washington Post’s David Ignatius argued.