Global Hot List: Brazilian local elections provide a far-right foothold

1. Brazil – Here to stay

Local elections in Brazil forecasted a right-wing shift for the country, revealing evidence of the persistent strength of “Bolsonarism” in politics. Bolsonaro’s party gained ground across the board, and even far-right candidates not backed by Bolsonaro made headway in the vote. The controversial and bombastic Pablo Marcal, seen by some as a potential “Bolsonaro heir” despite lacking his endorsement, placed a close third in Sao Paulo’s mayoral election. Run-off elections will determine the overall picture, but between Marcal and the Bolsonaro-supported incumbent, left-wing candidate Guilherme Boulos will have a steep challenge to overcome.

2. USA – Standard practice

US foreign policy could see a reversion to realism under a potential President Kamala Harris. Semafor’s Mizy Clifton discusses the outlook for foreign policy in a Harris administration, where some analysts see a rhetorical shift from the “democracy-vs-autocracy” message pursued by the Biden administration to a more pragmatic frame. The US has already selectively applied that approach to build alliances, reversing its pledge to break with Saudi Arabia as one example. Biden and Harris have also been criticized for embracing authoritarians like Modi in India or Marcos in the Philippines, drawing ire from human rights campaigners. “Harris, a former prosecutor, should know laws can’t be cherry picked,” said one former Human Rights Watch director.

3. Tunisia – No statement

Tunisia held a presidential election characterized as rigged by opposition and international observers, with markedly low turnout. Though official results saw President Kais Saied win in a landslide, beneath the surface there were signs of simmering discontent towards the authoritarian government, as less than 30% of registered voters went out to cast a ballot. The results echoed Tunisia’s parliamentary elections, which saw astonishingly low turnout to elect a “rubber stamp” legislature following repressive constitutional changes and an opposition boycott. The opposition likewise shunned this election, and youth-powered protests against Saied were a feature of the campaign.

4. Mexico – “Noah’s Ark”

An anti-AMLO businessman is campaigning for the independence of Mexico’s Nuevo Leon state, bordering Texas. Gilberto Lozano formed the National Anti-AMLO Front, which stands in opposition to the former Mexican president. Now, as part of a project he calls “Noah’s Ark,” Lozano is pushing for a referendum in Mexico’s Nuevo Leon state to secede from the country. Nuevo Leon is one of a handful of states, mostly in Mexico’s north, which are not governed by the Morena party that dominates national politics. But the state is also landlocked, and the Mexican constitution provides no mechanism for secession.

5. Sri Lanka – Yes another

A YouTuber is running for parliament in Sri Lanka’s upcoming snap election. New legislative elections were called forward in Sri Lanka following the recently-elected president’s victory. Ashen, a content creator with over 500,000 subscribers on YouTube, announced that he was running for a legislative seat in Colombo, Sri Lanka’s capital. One Sri Lankan news outlet connected his candidacy to the success of other social media personalities in elections around the world, such as Fidias Panayiotou, a YouTuber from Cyprus who was elected to the European Parliament earlier this year.

6. Bosnia – Disaster impact

Bosnia’s local elections were held against a backdrop of devastating floods and landslides, which caused mass destruction. Elections were postponed in some affected areas as a result, in a vote that mostly saw an affirmation of the political status quo. The natural disaster has made it difficult for residents to focus on politics. “We are all overwhelmed by these flooding events. We all think only about that,” said one citizen in Sarajevo.

7. Mauritius – The next day

A snap election was called in Mauritius following a deal with the UK that transferred sovereignty over the Chagos Islands to the country. The move came just one day after Mauritius and the UK agreed on shifting control of the Chagos Islands, a longstanding issue following the indigenous Chagos Islanders removal from the region decades ago, and the subsequent construction of a joint US-UK military outpost. Chagos Islanders have campaigned to return ever since, though the deal has been criticized for excluding the population from negotiations. Given the historic nature of the agreement, snap elections may represent the prime minister’s attempt to capitalize on momentum.

8. Kazakhstan – Nuclear legacy

A referendum to determine the fate of nuclear power in Kazakhstan saw opposition repressed by the nation’s authoritarian government. Critics of the project to build the country’s first nuclear power station highlighted the “Soviet nuclear testing legacy” which saw Kazakhstan used as a research facility despite environmental destruction and endangerment of locals. The result for some has been a “distrust of anything nuclear,” in spite of the technology’s potential as a cleaner alternative to fossil fuels. Campaigning against approval of the plant was met with a government clampdown, with some demonstrators arrested.

9. Moldova – Russian plot

Police in Moldova warned of an alleged Russian plot to destabilize the country, including the possibility of directing mobs to storm government buildings as a vote looms. Moldova’s president Maia Sandu is favored to win re-election and lauded in Brussels for her pro-European stance, putting her square in the sights of Russian influence operations. “Vandals hurling paint” have been paid by Russia, “5,000 euros for a single incident,” claims the Moldovan national police chief. Russia has been accused of vote-buying in a concurrent EU status referendum, and one pro-Russian politician convicted of a billion-dollar bank theft is openly attempting to purchase votes.