The News
Welcome to the Global Hot List, our subjective, dynamic ranking of the races and political developments you should be paying attention to right now, compiled by world elections expert Brad Glasser.
This week: India’s rural-urban electoral dynamics, more political drama in the Philippines, and an extremist party takes root in Lithuania.
The List
1. USA – Poll panic?
As Democrats begin to worry about Kamala Harris’s standing, one of her senior advisors is urging people to ignore the polls. David Plouffe, an Obama veteran, told New York Magazine and other outlets the race was perpetually deadlocked in their own polls for weeks — and that it was unlikely to change before election day. Instead, they had to hope their ground game and closing message eked things out in the end: “My advice to people who are paying attention to this race is: Any poll out there that shows a lot of volatility is inconsistent with where this race stands.”
2. India – Voting divide
Does India have a rural-urban voting divide? In the recent state election in Haryana, the right-wing religious nationalist BJP won by 12 points in cities, while the opposition Congress was more popular in rural areas by around 5 points. This dynamic mirrors conventional wisdom in India, where the BJP secured its best results in urban areas during this year’s general election. However, some analysis has complicated that picture, finding that the BJP saw a significant drop-off compared to 2019 in “areas with a high urban growth rate.”
3. Lithuania – No exception
In Lithuania, a party founded by a politician who claimed “Jews and Russians” committed a Nazi massacre during World War 2 placed third in a national legislative vote. Dawn of Nemunas is founded by Remigijus Zemaitaitis, a lawmaker and former presidential candidate who was targeted for prosecution by parliament this year after posts accused of “inciting hatred” towards Jewish people. Zemaitaitis wrote in 2023 that “Lithuanian Jews, together with Russians” burned down a village along with its inhabitants during World War 2; in reality, the atrocity was committed by SS soldiers. Zemaitaitis said the “government is absolutely indifferent to the murder of Lithuanians… by Lithuanian Jews from 1941 to 1944.” Until recently, Lithuania was one exception to the wave of far-right parties that have swept the EU over the past decade.
4. Mozambique – National strike
An independent candidate for president in Mozambique claims he won the election, and vowed a “nationwide strike” if the ruling party declares victory. Venancio Mondlane claimed he was the “leading” candidate in Mozambique’s presidential election according to figures gathered by his supporters. The Frelimo party has governed Mozambique since independence, but Mondlane, a political “newcomer,” ran a campaign described as “striking a chord” with the country’s youth, “disaffected with unemployment and corruption.” Local elections held around a year ago drew accusations of Frelimo rigging the vote, leading to significant protests.
5. Ireland – Another one
2024 could see yet another election, as Ireland might be the next country to hold a snap vote before the end of the year. The left-wing nationalist Sinn Fein party led polls for years, but recent surveys suggest the incumbent Fine Gael party of Prime Minister Simon Harris is now in shape to win. Harris seems intent to capitalize on recent scandals for Sinn Fein, which has witnessed defections amid internal issues, compounding the party’s polling decline. Iceland is also set to hold a general election before the year is out.
6. Georgia – Bad influence
“It is all too easy to see” how Georgia’s pro-Russia ruling party could slant the playing field in the upcoming election, according to the Financial Times. Political polarization has progressed to a point of zero “mutual trust” between pro-Russian and pro-EU factions, with the incumbent Georgian Dream party having pledged a total ban on the opposition in the event of their victory. Observers worry that Georgian Dream could emulate Russia’s anti-democratic tactics and manipulate this election in any number of ways, including through “influence over… election commissions, control of the judiciary, vote-buying and intimidation of opposition activists.”
7. Kenya – Impeachment blues
The vice president of Kenya, Rigathi Gachagua, was impeached by Kenya’s National Assembly. Charges pertained to corruption and “stirring ethnic hatred,” and drew more than the two-thirds support required to impeach and send the case to deliberation in the Senate. Courts are also undergoing review of the impeachment. Kenya’s Senate will now decide whether to remove Gachagua from office, with the same two-thirds majority being required for the motion to succeed.
8. Philippines – Never friends
The vice president of the Philippines is claiming she was never friends with the president, despite allying with him for the 2022 election. “Maybe I was deceived,” said President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. in reference to comments made by Vice President Sara Duterte, in which she claimed the two were “not talking” and were “not friends in the first place.” Marcos and Duterte, two scions of political dynasties, have fallen out over a spat between the president and Duterte’s father, the former president Rodrigo Duterte. Drama between the two families has engulfed Filipino politics, forming the overriding political dynamic of the past year.
9. Brazil – Police influencers
Police officers with large followings on social media are attempting to leverage their fame into political success. “More than 6,000 police officers” ran in Brazil’s local elections, with “about 45” social media influencers among them who have developed audiences around content that centers the “violent” and often sensational nature of their profession. Critics have raised concerns about the phenomenon’s impact on human rights. “Harsher laws” are often championed by legislators from law enforcement, and in a country where police brutality and extrajudicial killings are an ongoing concern, glorification of police becomes its own danger.