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Semafor Signals

Zelenskyy pushes ‘victory plan’ as NATO defense chiefs meet in Brussels

Updated Oct 16, 2024, 11:28am EDT
Europe
Volodymyr Zelenskyy, wearing a dark polo shirt, addresses Ukraine's Parliament.
Andrii Nesterenko/Reuters
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The News

Volodymyr Zelenskyy partially unveiled his “victory plan” to win the war against Russia to Ukrainian lawmakers on Wednesday after weeks of struggling to secure backing for the plan from Western leaders.

The plan consists of five broad geopolitical, military, and economic points, and three secret “addendums,” Zelenskyy said, and includes NATO membership for Ukraine and lifting restrictions on using long-range weapons to strike deep inside Russia.

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“If we do not strengthen now, [Russian President Vladimir] Putin will have time to strengthen next year so that he will throw diplomacy aside forever. Russia must lose the war against Ukraine... We must implement the Victory Plan to force Russia to be at the Peace Summit and be ready to end the war,” Zelenskyy said.

The Ukrainian leader’s renewed push for NATO membership comes as the alliance’s ministers of defense begin a two-day meeting in Brussels on Wednesday — the first for Mark Rutte, the new head of NATO.

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NATO membership a hard ask for Western leaders

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Sources:  
Reuters, NATO, The Economist, The Guardian

NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte did not directly address Ukrainian membership Wednesday but said Zelenskyy’s “victory plan” would be discussed at its ongoing defense meeting. NATO has emphasized it is not a party to the Russia-Ukraine conflict: Despite Western support for Ukraine, NATO membership remains a “binary question” because of collective defense obligations, and members are wary of admitting Ukraine while it is at war, The Economist noted. In a July open letter, a group of international relations experts argued that NATO should never admit Ukraine because, even if the current war with Russia ends, a future war — where the US would be a player by default — is possible, while promising membership once the war ends risks incentivizing Russia to keep fighting.

Zelenskyy shows renewed ‘urgency’ as US election approaches

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Sources:  
The New Yorker, Brookings Institute, Atlantic Council

As the US presidential election nears, Zelenskyy is soldiering on with his “victory plan” partly because he “knows he may be facing his last best chance for substantial foreign assistance,” The New Yorker noted. US President Joe Biden may be wary of committing to the plan lest it becomes a liability for Vice President Kamala Harris’ presidential run, while her opponent Donald Trump has repeatedly criticized military aid to Ukraine, the Brookings Institute noted, while his running mate JD Vance proffered a peace plan that would see Ukraine agree to cede territory currently held by Russia. Still, Trump’s official policy is unclear, and his evasiveness may enable him to keep his options open should he win back the White House, the Atlantic Council noted.

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