The News
Lee Jae Myung has been through Hell, and now he’s back.
If the next South Korean presidential election were held today, the winner would be clear. Lee, the last election’s runner-up who ran with the center-left Democratic Party, is the early favorite in polling for the next vote in three years’ time. The former governor of Gyeonggi, Lee has garnered a reputation as a progressive in international media for proposals like instituting a universal basic income in his province.
In 2022, Lee lost by a razor-thin margin, paving the way for conservatives to return to power. The winner, President Yoon Suk Yeol, stood as Lee’s opposite in many ways, with a reputation as a devoted capitalist who has promoted policies like allowing a 120-hour work week.
In office, Yoon has not been popular. The president’s approval ratings have been dismal at times, following public backlash to his conservative economic agenda along with repeated controversies and scandals. Yoon faced criticism over his handling of floods in 2022, and more recently was implicated in a “cover-up” after repeatedly blocking an investigation into the death of a South Korean marine.
Midterm elections held this year were not kind to Yoon’s party. The Democrats secured a thumping win, sending a clear signal of rejection towards the government and kicking off a wave of opposition momentum — that Lee is positioned to lead.
After losing the presidential election, Lee’s troubles didn’t end. Throughout 2023 the former candidate faced corruption allegations that resulted in his own party voting to remove his legal immunity.
Last January, Lee was brutally attacked during a tour of an airport construction site in Busan. The assailant stabbed him in the neck, requiring him to be hospitalized. Later, when asked about his motive, the attempted murderer claimed he was trying to prevent Lee from ever becoming president.
But Lee recovered. In August, he was re-elected as the leader of the Democratic Party in a landslide, becoming the first party leader in over two decades to win a second term. Polls continue to find Lee popular, putting him well ahead of anyone else on a hypothetical ballot.
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Brad’s View
There are some parallels between Lee’s rise and electoral dynamics elsewhere. His surge in support reflects a salient political lesson of our age: That defeat is not necessarily the end for candidates. Around the world — including in the United States — election runner-ups can count on anger towards incumbents to lift their fortunes.
Lee still faces legal issues surrounding an alleged North Korean bribery scheme, but voters don’t seem phased. What once looked like a career-ending issue is now background noise.
His tenure as governor might also look a little rosier as voters — similar to other democracies — reconsider things in the light of the chaotic 2020-2022 period that upended normal life everywhere. Recently, Lee has talked about “livelihood-ism,” speaking directly to the issue that has plagued every post-pandemic government around the world: cost of living. Lee seems to have leveled up his proposal for a “universal basic income” to a promise of what he calls a “universal basic society,” which entails “state-funded basic income, basic housing and other living standards.”
South Korea won’t go to vote again until 2027. But right now, there is only one frontrunner.
He wants his revenge.
Room for Disagreement
While Lee is ahead in polls, there are other presidential hopefuls. The most likely challenger to Lee is People Power Party leader Han Dong Hoon, who is also the Minister of Justice.
Han, a prosecutor with a profile somewhat similar to the current president, is nearly 20 points behind in head-to-head matchups, but is aiming to sell himself to the South Korean electorate as a “young… and corruption-busting” leader. Given the length of time until the election, it’s hard to say what could happen.
Notable
For his progressive reputation, Lee was labeled the South Korean “Bernie Sanders” in some international news sources.