The News
The death of Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar has sent shockwaves through the Middle East and beyond. While his killing has rekindled tentative hopes of a ceasefire in Gaza, particularly among Western leaders, Iran-backed militias elsewhere have vowed to increase their attacks on Israel, although there is uncertainty about the future of Hamas itself.
US president Joe Biden said he told Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu that “now is the time to move on.”
Netanyahu held a consultation Friday with Israeli ministers and defense officials to discuss how to capitalize on the “significant window of opportunity” that Sinwar’s death presented. However, the Israeli leader has stressed that Sinwar’s demise does not mean Israel has completed its aim of destroying Hamas.
SIGNALS
Hopes rise for potential ceasefire deal — but with who remains unclear
Since Sinwar’s death, multiple world leaders have raised the possibility of Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu declaring victory and restarting talks for a ceasefire and hostage deal unimpeded by the Hamas leader’s obstructionist positions. However, it is unclear whether Israel will be able to negotiate a deal with a weakened Hamas. “Killing Sinwar means Israel has no one to talk to about the hostages in Gaza,” a lawyer from Gaza told NPR. The Israeli Defense Forces believes Hamas fighters in Gaza are in “guerilla mode,” having lost many top commanders, The Economist reported, and some analysts fear the group could splinter into rival militias, each with their own sets of demands.
Hezbollah and Iran warn of ‘strengthened’ opposition to Israel
In the wake of Sinwar’s killing, Lebanon-based group Hezbollah warned it would “transition to a new and escalatory phase” of its conflict with Israel. The Iran-backed group has lost much of its own leadership, including long-time chief Hassan Nasrallah, but has retained the ability to challenge Israel directly, CNN noted. Meanwhile, Iran said in a statement after Sinwar’s killing that “the spirit of resistance will be strengthened,” although most analysts believe that Tehran hopes to avoid an all-out war against Israel, The New York Times reported. As pressure on Iran’s proxies intensifies, however, it becomes increasingly likely that Tehran will act to build nuclear weapons, two experts argued.
Israel still lacks long-term plan for Gaza
Even after decapitating Hamas, the contours of a post-war plan for Gaza remain unclear, critics contend. “Netanyahu has utterly failed to prepare for what he knows lies ahead,” The Washington Post’s David Ignatius wrote. US, Arab, and Israeli officials have been quietly discussing a plan that would involve deploying an international mission to Gaza to establish law and order, although there are disagreements over whether or how to involve the West Bank’s Palestinian Authority, Axios reported. At present, “a failed state is the most likely… outcome for Gaza,” terrorism expert Daniel Byman argued in Foreign Policy, noting that in such an environment, “Hamas, even if weak and disorganized, will be able to endure and perhaps even prosper.”