The News
North Korea’s growing involvement in the war in Ukraine is a “grave security threat” to the world, South Korea’s president warned Friday.
South Korean intelligence believes North Korea has decided to send 12,000 soldiers and 1,500 special forces to aid Russia in its war in Ukraine, news outlets reported Friday, in what would be Pyongyang’s first major deployment of ground troops in a war overseas.
North Korean soldiers have already been on the ground in advisory roles, according to Ukrainian officials. But sending troops into combat would mark a dramatic escalation in the country’s involvement in the war.
Eleven thousand North Korean soldiers are currently training in Russia, the head of Ukraine’s military intelligence told The War Zone. “They will be ready on Nov. 1,” Kyrylo Budanov said, adding that they could be sent first to Kursk, the region of Russia where Ukraine still has a foothold.
SIGNALS
North Korean troops could reduce pressure on Putin
The alleged surge of North Korean troops is a sign of the lengths Vladimir Putin is willing to go to in order to avoid calling up more troops, the Washington-based Institute for the Study of War said. The Russian Defense Ministry has pushed Putin to launch another round of mobilization, something Putin has been reluctant to do, The Wall Street Journal reported. Mobilizing troops is politically unpopular in Russia, and rare protests have broken out during previous efforts to call up military reservists. Instead, Russia has been steadily ramping up the salaries and bonuses for volunteer soldiers, offering wages more than double the the national average in a bid to attract more recruits.
NKorean deployment could lead Seoul to boost support for Ukraine
A deployment of North Korean troops could lead South Korea to increase its support for Ukraine, one expert said. “The South Korean government would have to think about how it could support Ukraine, whether it’s weapons, whether it’s a promise of long-term investment,” Victor Cha, Korea chair at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, said at an event Thursday. South Korea has long been unwilling to provide weapons directly to Kyiv, fearing that direct military support could lead Russia to develop deeper ties with North Korea. But the country is a major arms producer, and this summer said it would reconsider sending weapons to Ukraine.
Zelenskyy’s nuclear comments spark threats from Putin
Putin reacted strongly to comments made by Ukraine President Volodymyr Zelenskyy — which he quickly walked back — that his country needed either NATO or nuclear weapons to ensure its long-term security. Putin called the comments a “dangerous provocation,” vowing to respond to any steps Kyiv might take towards obtaining a nuclear arsenal. The Ukrainian president’s remark’s were made while discussing Ukraine’s decision to give up Soviet nuclear weapons in the 1990s, with a Wall Street Journal reporter saying they’d been “completely misread.” Ukraine does not have fissile materials or facilities to produce the weapons, meaning that building a nuclear payload would take “at least a few years,” one nuclear expert said, even without the challenge of setting up nuclear weapons facilities within range of Russian missiles.