The News
Former President Donald Trump is doubling down on his signature economic message — tax everything coming into America — as he makes his closing arguments to voters ahead of the US presidential election.
While the exact details of Trump’s protectionist economic plan remain unclear — he has called at times for across-the-board tariffs ranging from 10% to 20%, and a separate tariff of 60% or more on goods from China — the taxes would likely be the highest such tariffs since 1930 and would significantly disrupt global trade systems, economists warn.
Economists have repeatedly expressed concern that such high duty hikes could cost most US consumers considerably, despite Trump’s assurances to the contrary, particularly if the US’ current trade partners retaliate with their own measures.
SIGNALS
Americans believe in tariffs — even though they will likely hurt them
Trump’s economic proposals — and specifically his tariffs — would almost certainly inflame the nation’s debt burden and raise taxes for most income groups, except the top five percent of highest-earning Americans, according to analyses from several economic think tanks. Despite these warnings, “a lot of people don’t seem to get [tariffs]” likely have negative consequences, CNN wrote, with many convinced by Trump’s claims that adversaries like China would pay up. Meanwhile, Vice President Kamala Harris’ campaign has also been forced to “walk a fine line” in terms of her own economic agenda, since voters — particularly those in crucial swing states — support tariffs, according to a former deputy US Trade representative.
More moderate Trump plan would still have long-term consequences
Perhaps the “biggest question” about Trump’s tariff plans is whether he would dial down duties in return for concessions, as he did in his first term, when he used tariffs to renegotiate trade deals, The Wall Street Journal wrote, such as his replacement of the US trade pact with Canada and Mexico, NAFTA, with the USMCA.Trump advisors have suggested tariff rollouts would be targeted and gradual to achieve such renegotiations, but even a temporary spike in some levies could have long-lasting consequences, particularly as “tariffs are easy to impose but hard to remove,” one economist told ABC News.
EU prepares for Trump with its own tariffs
Brussels is ready to deploy its own tariffs against the US if former President Donald Trump wins the election and follows through with his threat to universally raise import duties, Bloomberg reported. The EU is preparing an impact assessment of the consequences should Trump be reelected, but the bloc’s “favored approach” would be to bilaterally cooperate with Trump on some areas of common interest, including coordinating on tariffs targeting Chinese goods. While Europe considers a Kamala Harris presidency more predictable, the EU would still be grappling with the legacy of current US President Joe Biden’s own protectionist trade measures, including his $390 billion subsidy program to support green technology that incentivizes companies to shift investment from Europe to the US.