Global Hot List: The world’s other close elections

1. USA – ‘McDonald Trump’

As the US campaign heads into its final stretch, a snapshot of the election shows that Trump has seized a momentum edge. In the immediate aftermath of the 2020 election, and especially after January 6th, many wondered whether Trump was finished in American politics. Though still far from actually winning re-election, Trump has gathered steam, and now stands as a slight favorite to win according to most models. Two assassination attempts, an unpopular Biden administration, a social media service powered up as his personal campaign engine, and yes, a visit to McDonald’s, have softened perceptions towards a Donald Trump who by all accounts has plunged towards the right-wing extreme, with threats to turn the army against American political opposition he deems “the enemy from within.” It is the world’s supersized political story — and our American reality.

2. Japan – Just 200

Could the LDP lose its majority in Japan’s election? A new poll from the Asahi Shimbun foretells one of the party’s worst performances in years, with the party reduced to 200 seats — and not even getting over the line with their alliance partner, Komeito. However, conservative parties overall still amount to well over half of the poll’s projection, and the general direction of government may well remain the same if other parties of the center-right are brought in.

3. Kenya – Official removal

The vice president of Kenya was officially removed from office. Rigathi Gachagua, who served as deputy in the administration of President William Ruto, was ousted by the Senate following his impeachment in an earlier House vote, each securing the two-thirds majority needed to succeed. Five charges against Gachagua were upheld by the Senate, including “inciting ethnic violence.” The impeachment was seen by analysts as a move from Ruto to consolidate power, but some are wondering whether the president himself will get swept up in impeach-mentum.

4. Mozambique – Spiraling situation

Mozambique is experiencing deadly post-election unrest, as the government moves to crack down on protests. An advisor to major independent candidate Venancio Mondlane was assassinated along with another opposition figure, resulting in calls for protests and a strike. One demonstration was met with violent force from authorities attempting to scatter the crowd that had gathered at the site of the killings. The ruling party, Frelimo, has been repeatedly accused of election fraud, and observers have criticized the conduct of this most recent vote.

5. Moldova – Divided nation

Moldova narrowly approved a push to join the European Union, in a vote that was emblematic of the country’s political divisions. The vote came down to postal ballots, resulting in a 50.5 to 49.5 photo-finish in favor of EU proponents, despite an alleged Russian influence campaign in the preceding weeks. In approving the referendum, voters added language to the constitution endorsing EU accession by 2030. The country’s presidential election, held simultaneously, will go to a run-off in which President Maia Sandu, a pro-EU liberal, is favored against Alexandr Stoianoglo, who is supported by the Russia-friendly Party of Socialists.

6. Canada – Too close

A provincial election in British Columbia, Canada hangs on a knife-edge as the New Democratic Party government fights to survive a challenge from the right. With only a few ballot boxes outstanding, the present total of seats makes the governing majority unclear, though the NDP hold a slight edge over the Conservatives. As of the current count, the NDP would be set to return to government with support from the Green Party, which won two seats. Conservatives in British Columbia had virtually no presence for years in the province’s elections, and their emergence represents a province-wide shift to the right.

7. Philippines – Horror movie politics

Filipino politics has taken a turn for the macabre, as the vice president threatened to exhume the corpse of the president’s father, and admitted to imagining “chopping off” the president’s head. Relations between the families of President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. and Vice President Sara Duterte-Carpio hit an all-time low with the remarks, against the backdrop of the two dynasties’ ongoing feud. Duterte-Carpio said she would throw the body of the president’s father, the dictator Ferdinand Marcos Sr., into the sea. The vice president also luridly described thoughts of murdering the president that were spurred by refusing a request to give his watch as a graduation gift.

8. Uruguay – Meet the Milei

“I really like being compared to Javier Milei,” says a surging contender for Uruguay’s presidency. Andres Ojeda, a millennial criminal lawyer, bodybuilder and television pundit running for Uruguay’s top job, has risen in polls in the last weeks of the campaign, and pledges to “open Uruguay to the world” through market liberalization. Asked about being compared to the libertarian president of Argentina, Ojeda said “if the comparison is for being a disruptive, innovative politician who understands the new politics, I appreciate it and accept it with pleasure.” One of Ojeda’s ads emphasizes his bodybuilding background, featuring the candidate hitting the gym. Some surveys have shown a second round featuring Ojeda could be close.

9. Australia – Teal independents

Australia’s “teal independents” have once again gained ground in elections. Named for their common campaign color and status as independent candidates, they succeeded in ousting a slate of Liberals from office back in 2022’s general election, running with a focus on climate issues and integrity in government. In a by-election held for a state parliamentary seat in New South Wales, independent candidate Jacqui Scruby claimed the seat, showing the durability of the teal movement. In the Australian Capital Territory, the new Independents for Canberra party secured a seat in the local parliament, taking more than 8% of the vote overall.