The News
US officials are voicing growing concern over the prospect of violence at next month’s presidential election.
The country is experiencing what Reuters described as the “biggest and most sustained increase in political violence since the 1970s,” with 51 incidents so far this year, ranging from assassination attempts on former President Donald Trump to brawls and property damage.
Several judges have, meanwhile, alerted that “the political climate is ripe” for a repeat of the Jan. 6, 2021 riot at the US Capitol, while the FBI has warned of a “dangerous increase in threats and violence” aimed at election workers.
In Arizona, election offices have added metal detectors, armed guards, and drone surveillance: “You’d have to be a psychopath to say you enjoy this,” one election official told The Wall Street Journal.
SIGNALS
Three out of four voters fear election violence
Nearly three-quarters of US voters are worried about political violence following the Nov. 5 election, recent polling found, although many more liberals expressed concern than did moderates or conservatives. A poll conducted in September found that 8% of Americans thought the use of force was justified to prevent Donald Trump from being elected, while 6% said violence would be warranted to restore Trump to the presidency. While there is always a risk of lone-wolf style attacks, “public support for violence can nudge people to act by making them believe their violent act would be popular,” one of the researchers behind the poll wrote in The New York Times.
Fears of more Jan. 6-style violence
In the short term, Trump’s reelection in November is more likely to lead to a peaceful transition of power, as far-right militias would have little to be angry about, Barbara F. Walter, an expert on civil wars and violent extremism, wrote in The New Yorker, even as she cautioned his presidency might raise longer-term risks of mass protests and racial tensions. If Kamala Harris wins, by contrast, violence would be more likely to break out quickly, Walter argued. “It would likely start with protests against the election results, which could turn into riots,” she wrote, sketching out a possible scenario where far-right groups could target “traitors within their own party,” like moderate Republicans who opposed Trump.
Election turmoil could offer window of opportunity for US adversaries
Some Western allies, including Germany, are bracing for the possibility that election violence could break out, leading the US to become consumed with itself at a time of great geopolitical uncertainty, The Atlantic reported. “If you’re an adversary of the United States, whether you’re talking about Putin, Iran, or others, it would be a perfect opportunity to exploit the fact that we’re distracted,” Victoria Nuland, a former senior State Department official, told the magazine. Given America’s prominence, “U.S. electoral turmoil could provide a model for further seditious organizing in allied states,” the Council on Foreign Relations’ Jacob Ware argued. Domestic extremism around the election would also weaken US credibility on human rights and international security issues, he added.