Nate Silver says don’t trust his gut

Nearly everyone has a gut feeling about the outcome of the US election that takes place in two weeks. But you shouldn’t “put any value whatsoever on anyone’s gut — including mine,” polling guru Nate Silver wrote in The New York Times Wednesday. For what it’s worth, Silver’s gut says Donald Trump will win. Going with your intuition is sometimes helpful, but in this election, “50-50 is the only responsible forecast,” he argued.

The polls, most of which show a deadlocked race, will ultimately be wrong in one direction or the other, and Silver wrote there’s a case for either Kamala Harris or Trump outperforming their polls. That could result in a blowout win for one candidate, if multiple swing states swing in one direction.