The News
A French trader used a popular political prediction platform to wager $45 million that Donald Trump will win the US presidential election, skewing the odds in the Republican’s favor. The trader used different accounts on Polymarket, which doesn’t permit US users. The crypto-based platform now has Trump’s odds at 61%, up from 50% in early October.
The ubiquity of prediction platforms has been a defining feature of this election: Proponents say they are more responsive to developments compared to polls, which have shifted slightly in Trump’s favor in recent days. But analysts question whether prediction markets are “in any way indicative of reality, or whether the bets might constitute a form of manipulation, astroturfing momentum for Trump,” The New Yorker’s Kyle Chayka wrote.