The News
Russia trumpeted a successful summit of the BRICS group of mostly emerging economies, but its efforts were undermined by snubs from two Central Asian states.
Moscow showcased the talks — which it said were attended by representatives of 36 countries — as evidence that a Western push to isolate it over the Ukraine invasion had failed.
But Kazakhstan recently said it does not want to join the BRICS alliance, while a senior Uzbek official said it would not join a separate Russia-led trade bloc, the Eurasian Economic Union, Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty reported.
SIGNALS
Countries on Russia’s periphery face challenges
Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan’s positions on Russia-led groups point to the challenge facing countries on Russia’s periphery, who are wary of angering Moscow but fear the repercussions of helping it bypass Western sanctions, an analyst at The Jamestown Foundation think tank noted. Kazakhstan’s decision not to join BRICS is a setback for Russian President Vladimir Putin and may prove a “geopolitical gamble” for the country, an analyst noted for policy advisory Emerging Europe. The Kremlin has already sanctioned some Kazakh imports, citing safety concerns, but “for those who can read between the lines, this is merely a flimsy excuse to impose punitive measures against its historically compliant southern neighbour,” the analyst noted.
Erdogan’s presence at BRICS ‘a feather in Putin’s cap’
Putin’s efforts to show the West he’s not a pariah have benefited significantly from the presence at BRICS of Turkey’s President Recep Tayyip Erdogan — the only NATO member to take part in the summit, The New York Times noted. Erdogan’s presence is “a feather in Putin’s cap,” analysts said: It serves as proof that the Russian president is expanding his circle of influence, even as most BRICS countries are harsh critics of NATO. For Erdogan, the attendance is representative of his years of straddling East and West: “Ankara believes the U.S.-led world order is in decline and wants to survive in a multipolar world by having a foot in each camp,” an analyst told the Times.
Unclear whether Putin’s alternative currency plan is workable
Putin opened the BRICS summit by calling for an alternative financial system that uses blockchain technology and digital currencies to circumvent the widely used dollar-based SWIFT system. Analysts were split over the traction the proposal gained: BRICS members “are nodding, they are politely listening… But there is no sign yet that this initiative is going viral and will be implemented in real life,” an analyst told the Financial Times. An Oxford economist, however, told the UK-based i newspaper that Russia’s proposal would enjoy support, particularly from China — which has experienced payment issues when trading with Russia recently — and even India, which would be able to buy cheap energy “without the fear of secondary sanctions.”