The News
Washington is ramping up pressure on Beijing to lean on Pyongyang over North Korean troops to Russia for use in Ukraine.
The Department of State confirmed Monday that US officials had voiced concerns to China, and noted Beijing’s “influential voice in the region.” China, however, has denied knowledge of North Korea’s actions and reiterated support for a peaceful resolution to the war in Ukraine.
The increased urgency comes after a South Korean lawmaker warned that North Korean generals may soon head to the front lines of the Ukraine war in support of Russia.
Since then, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy stated on Tuesday that he has ramped up intelligence exchange with South Korea, as part of the war “becoming internationalized, extending beyond two countries.”
SIGNALS
China must walk a diplomatic tightrope
Beijing is in a tricky position, Feng Yujun, a prominent Peking University expert and an outspoken critic of Russia noted in a translated commentary for the Sinification newsletter. Its allies North Korea and Russia seem keen to re-establish Cold War-era blocs, but China should be wary, Feng wrote. “Having incompetent teammates can prove more detrimental than being isolated,” Feng wrote, arguing that they could not compete with NATO in the West or the US-Japan-South Korea alliance in Asia. In a scenario where South Korea and Israel — seeking to counter Moscow’s support from Pyongyang and Tehran — increase support for Ukraine, the situation would likely become even more intractable for Beijing, he argued: “China cannot ignore the historical lesson that gradual changes can lead to a qualitative shift and a ‘slide into a Cold War.’”
North Korea has little leverage over Beijing
China, which North Korea depends on for trade, has much more leverage over Pyongyang than vice versa, experts said: “North Korea still clearly needs China for economic support, which Russia is not in a position to give,” an analyst at the RAND Corporation think tank told Radio Free Asia. That said, “China’s pressure on North Korea, if it takes place, is likely to be applied quietly and will be difficult to observe from the outside,” they added. From this perspective, North Korea’s seeming closeness to Russia is perhaps nothing more than a “marriage of convenience… or desperation,” another RAND expert wrote in a separate commentary.
Ukraine feels pressure from global forces
Drawing North Korea into the war underscores Russia’s willingness to battle on, even as Ukraine’s European and US allies have expressed growing weariness over the conflict. With the US presidential election looming, there are concerns that regardless of the outcome, the US could start to pull back on support for Kyiv, The Washington Post wrote, as Americans’ support for Ukraine’s fight dwindles in the face of domestic issues. In Europe, there is a similar waning of support among populations as the war drags on, spurred on in part by the rise of far right and Russia-leaning political parties and figures throughout the bloc. “Many of the continent’s leaders and policymakers acknowledge that the longer it takes, the harder it gets,” the Post wrote.