The News
Next week’s US presidential election will likely result in a more inward-looking, nationalist country at best, and an amplification of global instability at worst, multiple international opinion pieces argued.
In The Indian Express, a foreign-policy expert wrote that ex-President Donald Trump’s enduring appeal points to “a new era of international relations,” whether or not he wins. Trump’s return to the White House, the Financial Times’ chief economics commentator warned, would encourage “rightwing populists seeking power, particularly in Europe,” while a contested result would have global ramifications, a London-based journalist noted in Foreign Policy, given Washington’s role in the wars in Ukraine and the Middle East: “The rest of the world isn’t ready for months of chaos in Washington.”
SIGNALS
US allies fear protracted election disputes could distract the US
Some US allies are concerned that if violence breaks out over disputed presidential election results or Washington gets bogged down in complex legal battles, American adversaries could act while the country’s attention is directed inwards. NATO officials are worried that US election instability could increase the likelihood of more brutal Russian attacks on Ukraine, noting that Vladimir Putin carried out acts of war during the 2016 lame-duck period in the US, Foreign Policy reported. “If you’re an adversary of the United States, whether you’re talking about Putin, Iran, or others, it would be a perfect opportunity to exploit the fact that we’re distracted,” Victoria Nuland, a former senior State Department official, told The Atlantic.
Europe worries that the high point of US-Europe relations could be in the past
No matter who wins, some in Europe suspect that the high point of US-Europe relations could already be in the past. Joe Biden’s transatlantic instincts represent “the last hurrah of a past era,” one UK columnist argued, writing that few younger politicians in the US came into politics during the Cold War era where Europe was the key focus of US foreign policy. “What form of dialogue we can have” with the US would be very different depending on who becomes president, but the “content” would be similar, with both Kamala Harris and Donald Trump demanding more European defense spending and pushing the bloc to be tough on China, Jürgen Hardt, a German lawmaker, told Semafor.
Beijing expects a confrontational Washington either way
Chinese observers expect Washington to continue treating Beijing as a major adversary irrespective of who wins, Chinese experts argued in Foreign Affairs. The view from Beijing is that both Democrats and Republicans are in lockstep on seeking to compete with China, even if specific policies could vary slightly depending on who is in the White House, they added. As relations between the two superpowers continue to sour, Beijing seeks a “new Henry Kissinger” in Washington — a high profile figure who has the “the ear of the president” and a desire to engage with China to help avoid competition turning into conflict, The Washington Post reported.