The News
South Korea is reportedly considering supplying Ukraine with weapons in response to its northern neighbor deploying troops to Russia.
Around 8,000 North Korean troops are now stationed near Russia’s border with Ukraine, according to US intelligence, and Seoul plans to send a delegation of military observers to Kyiv to monitor Pyongyang’s forces.
SIGNALS
South Korea’s government is divided over how to respond
The South Korean government is “caught between foreign partners asking for it to do more, and an opposition demanding it does less,” a Seoul-based analyst told the Financial Times. The country’s leaders also risk angering the public: Only 13% of South Koreans surveyed said they backed military action in response to North Korea deploying troops to Russia, while 66% said support for Ukraine should be limited to non-military and humanitarian aid. However, South Korea providing direct military support to Ukraine could boost its standing on the international stage by effectively allowing it to repay a debt to the countries that defended it during the Korean War, a defense expert argued.
NKorea’s troops are inexperienced, but deal with Russia will boost Pyongyang
NATO has said North Korea’s involvement in the war marks a troubling escalation, but experts question the fighting ability of Pyongyang’s troops: “They have never left their country before…They have never fought in actual combat,” a Ukrainian intelligence official told the Financial Times. Plus, Pyongyang’s reluctance to risk widespread defections by sending many of its citizens abroad will likely limit the deployment, a North Korea expert said. Nevertheless, first-hand experience of the battlefield will provide North Korea with a useful test of its soldiers and weapons, another expert told The Guardian. And the deal with Putin — details of which are unknown — could secure Kim Jong Un billions to help him evade Western sanctions and may boost his nuclear programme, a national security expert said.