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Semafor Signals

US posts weakest jobs report of the Biden presidency as election looms

Updated Nov 1, 2024, 1:17pm EDT
A CVS store advertises it is hiring in Cambridge, Massachusetts.
Brian Snyder/File Photo/Reuters
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The News

Job growth in the US slowed dramatically last month, with the world’s largest economy adding just 12,000 positions in October, owing to the effects of two hurricanes and a labor strike.

Friday’s jobs report marks the weakest of Biden’s presidency, severely underperforming economists’ expectations of a 100,000 gain, according to the Wall Street Journal.

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With the presidential election four days away, it comes at an inopportune time for Democratic candidate Kamala Harris, who remains less trusted on the economy than her Republican rival Donald Trump.

The jobs data was heavily impacted by hurricanes in the southeastern US which left thousands out of work, and by a large-scale strike by Boeing employees.

Overall unemployment remained at 4.1%, and the Federal Reserve is still expected to lower interest rates further next week.

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SIGNALS

Semafor Signals: Global insights on today's biggest stories.

Trump campaign seizes on jobs ‘catastrophe’

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Sources:  
Financial Times, The New York Times

The jobs figures were immediately seized upon by the Trump campaign, which called the numbers “a catastrophe,” and said the report “definitively reveals how badly Kamala Harris broke our economy.” But President Joe Biden defended his record, saying that “America’s economy remains strong,” and pointing to historically low unemployment rates. Democrats spent much of this week bracing for the lackluster data, arguing that exceptional factors would make it “harder than usual” to interpret the figures. Trump remains more trusted on the economy than Harris, although a recent poll suggested she is closing the gap.

Investors look past noisy jobs data

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Sources:  
Bloomberg, Financial Times, The Wall Street Journal

Despite the poor jobs report and shrinking manufacturing activity, Wall Street appeared to be largely ignoring the numbers. US stocks opened higher on Friday, with both the S&P 500 and Nasdaq rising in early trading. Investors still expect the Federal Reserve to lower interest rates next week, and the global chair of research at Barclays told the Financial Times that a further quarter percentage cut in December is “definitely on the cards.” Despite this month’s poor employment numbers, the US economy is “outrunning every other major developed economy, not to mention its own historical growth rate,” The Wall Street Journal’s chief economics commentator argued.

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