The News
Welcome to the Global Hot List, our subjective, dynamic ranking of the races and political developments you should be paying attention to right now, compiled by world elections expert Brad Glasser.
This week: A history-making vote in Botswana, Macron’s worst poll ever, and finally, a year of US election uncertainty draws to a close.
At Semafor, our team will be tracking the election tonight and David Weigel has already compiled a list of bellwethers counties to watch.
The List
1. USA – Deep breath
2024’s election stands out as one of the most uncertain in American history heading into the day of voting. The polling average, the swing states, the betting markets: everything is even, although a late Iowa poll from political guidestone Ann Selzer jolted Harris supporters with a sense of confidence. More than ever, political observers should try to tune out the incredibly loud noise — and just wait for actual results.
2. Botswana – History made
For the first time ever, the Botswana Democratic Party lost a general election. The left-wing, opposition UDC alliance won a majority in legislative elections, while the BDP was reduced to just 4 seats in parliament. The Botswana Democratic Party has governed since former president Seretse Khama led the nation to independence in the 1960s, but suffered steep erosion over high unemployment and allegations of corruption. Incumbent president Mokgweetsi Masisi congratulated his opponent on his victory, saying it was a “good campaign.”
3. France – Congratulations?
Macron, somehow, is still seeing his worst polling ever with just under three years left in his presidency. A poll from Verian-Epoka put Macron’s approval at just 17%, the worst recorded in his presidency. Macron has faced sharp criticism over a governing deal that requires tacit agreement from Marine Le Pen’s nationalist party in order to persist in power. France won’t hold its next election until 2027, when Macron will be term-limited.
4. Mozambique – Into hiding
Mozambique’s opposition runner-up Venancio Mondlane is in hiding, and claims to have been the target of an assassination attempt. Following an election critics have decried as rigged in Mozambique, campaigners against the government have been targeted, including an advisor of Mondlane who was killed along with another opposition party figure weeks ago. The government has also instituted Internet restrictions in the midst of the post-election unrest. Mondlane says assassins tried to kill him in South Africa after he fled Mozambique for fear of being persecuted or killed by the state.
5. Moldova – No influence
Despite a Russian influence campaign, Moldova’s pro-EU president won a landslide re-election victory. Thanks to diaspora ballots and votes from the capital Chisinau, President Maia Sandu will return to office easily, defeating a former top legal official associated with the pro-Russia PSRM party. Moldova is investigating allegations that Russia meddled with the conduct of a referendum on EU membership held last month through an online disinformation campaign.
6. Japan – Steady now
Japanese voters chose to revoke the LDP’s majority government — but would still prefer the party to remain at the helm, according to a poll. Japan’s election has plunged the nation into greater political instability than it’s seen in over a decade, and early reports indicated that opposition parties had reservations about renewing the LDP’s term in government. However, a poll shows that Japanese voters may be hesitant about handing over the keys to the second-place Constitutional Democratic Party, as any opposition coalition would require a large and unwieldy tent of forces to guide the country. The new prime minister’s Cabinet approval ratings may be tumbling, but voters still want him to hang on.
7. UK – That was fast
UK Labour’s electoral honeymoon is already over, as a new poll shows the Tories in first for the first time in years. Placing a point ahead with 29%, the Tories already appear to have completely undone the momentum that characterized the last years of Labour’s term in opposition. The survey was also taken prior to the election of Kemi Badenoch as the Conservatives’ new leader, which could further shore up their support in the near-term, even as Badenoch has been criticized as a radical within the party.
8. Uruguay – Conspiracy theorists
A conspiracist party that campaigned against the “New World Order” has won seats in Uruguay’s thinly divided legislature. “Sovereign Identity,” which will enter the Uruguayan National Assembly for the first time following this election, was founded in 2022 by Gustavo Salle, formerly an activist with an environmentalist animal rights party. The party has spread misinformation and conspiracy theories on a host of issues, including vaccines, which Salle’s daughter — a newly-elected legislator herself — recently blamed for causing a bus crash.
9. Singapore – Rare vulnerability
Singapore’s ruling party is facing strain before the country’s next legislative vote in 2025. The People’s Action Party has governed for Singapore’s entire history, but opposition forces are looking to put up a historic fight in next year’s election following a term for the government that has seen rare political events, including a corruption scandal and a handover of power. Even the incoming new prime minister, Lawrence Wong, is suggesting that defeat is possible. Wong has suggested that a policy “reset” aimed at “widening the social safety net” is on the horizon for his administration.